Thursday, 06 August 2015 00:24

5G service revenues: US $65 billion-plus globally by 2025

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A new report forecasts ‘a health adoption for 5G’ with widespread adoption achieved from 2025 after a 2020 start, representing 7% of operator-billed service revenue.

Global research firm Juniper Research has analysed the coming 5G landscape and made some self-descried far sighted forecasts showing 5G revenue would grow from $100 million in service revenue in its first year of expected deployment, 2020, yet growing to US $65 billion by 2025 and that figure of 7% service revenue.

I’d personally have imagined it might be a lot more than 7% - does this mean fixed and 4G services for consumers and businesses makes up most of the other 93%?

In any case, 5G is more than just what we have now, only faster - it is something that promises to deliver a ‘new consumer experience.

Juniper notes that not only will 5G enable faster connections, but it will also ‘act as a catalyst for a wide range of new consumer and enterprise experiences, including both data intensive and energy efficient applications, high definition 4K-8K video, self-driving cars, advanced Virtual Reality, and a sensory/tactile Internet – constantly monitoring and controlling.’

Constantly monitoring and controlling might sound like the start of a 5G Skynet, enabled via a vastly powerful network of device and sensors making up the ‘Internet of Things,’ something that will terminate the lack of knowledge about our world to an intimate new level than every before.

All of this is documented in Juniper’s new research entitled ‘5G Market Strategies: 4G LTE Evolution, Spectrum Analysis & Opportunities 2015-2025’, which observes that ‘there is a growing consensus around the development of 5G standards in terms of both technology and performance aspects,’ and which is on sale to relevant parties.

This ‘5G Vision… includes key requisites such as network speeds of at least 10Gbps, 1ms latency or less, improved spectral efficiency, low energy consumption, better battery life, higher device density - along with improved reliability and flexibility.’

So, with all this vastly better performance, energy consumption, efficiency and more, enabling the next-generation of Internet of things devices and data, operators still have more to worry about than just the coming need to install 5G equipment.

Juniper says that ‘Operators will need to consider multiple service deployment scenarios to achieve an adequate ROI (Return on Investment) from their network and licence investments.’

Research author Nitin Bhas said: “These discrete segments or services will require transparent and competitive pricing based on data usage, device type, and speeds; this means that profit margins will vary with regards to the sector enabled.”

What else does the report show, in brief?

Well, we see Juniper estimating that ‘at least $25 billion will be invested into 5G technology research, trials and development over the next 5 years.’

In addition 4G LTE growth will continue, exceeding 3 billion connections globally by 2020, the year that 5G is meant to arrive in the start of carrier deployments at last.

Finally, Juniper has some more detail to whet your appetite in its 7 page PDF whitepaper, able to be downloaded free of charge once you freely register for Juniper’s database.

5G definitely sounds like something we want, its biggest problem at the moment is that its still being worked on and is 5 years away from its first major installations, and a total of 10 years away before 5G is presumably as widespread as 4G is today, or at least, as widespread as it is on Telstra’s 4G and 4GX-class (4G lTE-A) networks.

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Alex Zaharov-Reutt

One of Australia’s best-known technology journalists and consumer tech experts, Alex has appeared in his capacity as technology expert on all of Australia’s free-to-air and pay TV networks on all the major news and current affairs programs, on commercial and public radio, and technology, lifestyle and reality TV shows. Visit Alex at Twitter here.

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