Author's Opinion

The views in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of iTWire.

Have your say and comment below.

Wednesday, 26 January 2011 12:00

LCA 2011: APNIC scientist warns of impending IPv4 doomsday

By

Many who warn of an impending doomsday can be put into the chicken little class. Geoff Huston does not fit into that bracket.

Today, he brought a very real warning as his keynote to the 12th Australian national Linux conference in Brisbane: the IPv4 address space will be exhausted in a few weeks and there is no workable replacement in place.

Huston, chief scientist at the Asia Pacific Network Information Centre, is a jovial bloke and hardly looks like a doomsday prophet. But he backed his warning with data - in fact, more of it than needed - to convince even the most sceptical that there is no way out.

And beyond the exhaustion of the IPv4 address space, Huston also warned that it risked making the internet address lose its open character.

As soon as IPv4 addresses are exhausted, the cost of obtaining a real one - Australian ISPs always charge extra for a static IP - would rise and those who had addresses which were not advertised (about 20 percent of the total) could create a market in them, he pointed out.

Huston said that the use of TCP/IP had grown due to its openness. Growth, however, has been far beyond anyone's imagination; 189.6 million addresses were handed out in 2009 and 248.8 million in 2010.

And despite the theory that there would be a gradual migration to IPv6, this hasn't happened; only 0.3 percent of those on the net run IPv6.

"The Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) will run out of addresses in February. And the first date for a regional internet registry to exhaust its addresses is July 2012," Huston said.


While in theory one could continue using IPv4 and network address translation (NAT) while transitioning to IPv6, in reality this would not happen, he said.

The enormous cost involved was the a big hurdle. Nobody really had the motivation to be the first to move - would the customers of an ISP bear an extra fee in order that their provider could make his or her setup fully IPv6 compatible?

The short answer was no, Huston said.

He pointed out that the magnitude of what had to be done to make a transition work was simply staggering.

Globally, one needed to deploy IPv6 for 1.8 billion users, more than a billion end hosts, upgrade hundreds of millions of routers, firewalls and middleware units, audit billions of lines of configuration code and filters and audit hundreds of millions of ancillary support systems in the next 200 days.

Carriers were being asked to bear the cost of transitioning to IPv6; these were businesses that had control of the entire market and then lost control. It was only natural that they would be reluctant to dip into their pockets to make the transition.

Additionally, those who benefitted from the openness of the past were increasingly ambivalent about open networks now; they were entrenched as incumbents with market positions to protect, Huston said.

In closing, he told his audience of geeks: "I leave the problem with you. You need to prevent a multi-billion dollar industry from falling flat on its arse."


Please join our community here and become a VIP.

Subscribe to ITWIRE UPDATE Newsletter here
JOIN our iTWireTV our YouTube Community here
BACK TO LATEST NEWS here

PROMOTE YOUR WEBINAR ON ITWIRE

It's all about Webinars.

Marketing budgets are now focused on Webinars combined with Lead Generation.

If you wish to promote a Webinar we recommend at least a 3 to 4 week campaign prior to your event.

The iTWire campaign will include extensive adverts on our News Site itwire.com and prominent Newsletter promotion https://itwire.com/itwire-update.html and Promotional News & Editorial. Plus a video interview of the key speaker on iTWire TV https://www.youtube.com/c/iTWireTV/videos which will be used in Promotional Posts on the iTWire Home Page.

Now we are coming out of Lockdown iTWire will be focussed to assisting with your webinatrs and campaigns and assassistance via part payments and extended terms, a Webinar Business Booster Pack and other supportive programs. We can also create your adverts and written content plus coordinate your video interview.

We look forward to discussing your campaign goals with you. Please click the button below.

MORE INFO HERE!

INTRODUCING ITWIRE TV

iTWire TV offers a unique value to the Tech Sector by providing a range of video interviews, news, views and reviews, and also provides the opportunity for vendors to promote your company and your marketing messages.

We work with you to develop the message and conduct the interview or product review in a safe and collaborative way. Unlike other Tech YouTube channels, we create a story around your message and post that on the homepage of ITWire, linking to your message.

In addition, your interview post message can be displayed in up to 7 different post displays on our the iTWire.com site to drive traffic and readers to your video content and downloads. This can be a significant Lead Generation opportunity for your business.

We also provide 3 videos in one recording/sitting if you require so that you have a series of videos to promote to your customers. Your sales team can add your emails to sales collateral and to the footer of their sales and marketing emails.

See the latest in Tech News, Views, Interviews, Reviews, Product Promos and Events. Plus funny videos from our readers and customers.

SEE WHAT'S ON ITWIRE TV NOW!

BACK TO HOME PAGE
Sam Varghese

Sam Varghese has been writing for iTWire since 2006, a year after the site came into existence. For nearly a decade thereafter, he wrote mostly about free and open source software, based on his own use of this genre of software. Since May 2016, he has been writing across many areas of technology. He has been a journalist for nearly 40 years in India (Indian Express and Deccan Herald), the UAE (Khaleej Times) and Australia (Daily Commercial News (now defunct) and The Age). His personal blog is titled Irregular Expression.

Share News tips for the iTWire Journalists? Your tip will be anonymous

VENDOR NEWS