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Like other surveys of the market, ABI Research found that 2008 was a year of two halves - the year started out with a bang and ended with a bust
In the first half, mobile handset shipments happily chugged along at 14% year on uear growth. In the second half, 3Q handset shipments slowed to 8% before crashing into the Red in 4Q with -10%.
"Sheer fear sapped the confidence of consumers, enterprises and corporate users across the board," says Jake Saunders, Asia-Pacific Vice-President of ABI Research.
"As a result, 2008 signed out the year with 1.21 billion handsets shipped for an annual growth of 5.4%. Just a year ago we had +16%."
According to ABI Research, among the mobile handset vendors there were winners and losers but the most impressive performances came from two smartphone players RIM (Blackberry) and Apple (iPhone).
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Kevin Burden, practice director for mobile devices at ABI Research noted that the biggest players Samsung (+2.7%), Nokia (+1.8%) and LG ( +1.5%) all gained market share in 2008. However, Nokia's share declined in the second half and the decline accelerated in 4Q.
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According to ABI Research, despite the tough economic climate, RIM and Apple are likely to continue their march to the consumer centre-stage but it in a way that does not drop their handset ASPs to bargain basement levels. HTC was late entering the consumer smartphone market with the Android-based G1, but the vendor has significant contracts in place (such as T-Mobile) which should play to the its advantage in 2009.
The biggest loser in 2008 was Motorola with –5.1% drop in market share in 2008 (8.3%). Little consolation that this was an improvement on 2007 in which the firm suffered a –7.8% drop.
Although quite as dramatic, Sony-Ericsson also stumbled in the mid part of 2008 with a -0.7% contraction in market-share.
The outlook for 2009, according to ABI Research is anything but rosy. However, it should come us welcome news for the likes of RIM and Apple.
"Sharp revisions to country-by-country economic conditions in the space of just three months will likely mean that a YoY handset shipment contraction of between -5% and -10% is becoming a distinct possibility," said ABI's Saunders.
"What is certain is that handset vendors will be trying to convince everyone they should own a smartphone. Welcome to the Year of Smartphone."
Further info can be had from ABI Research.