The firm's projections for 2019 showed a 0.8% drop for shipments to Western Europe, a 0.5% slide for Greater China, and a 0.4% fall for Latin America. North America shipments were predicted to rise by 0.5% while the Asia-Pacific region was projected to rise by 0.9%.
The total global shipment figure for 2019 was predicted to be 262.6 million units, compared to 261.7 million in 2018, meaning overall growth would be 0.3%.
Canalys said Windows 10 refresh would continue to be the main driver for companies buying new PCs in 2019. Chief analyst Alastair Edwards said: "This will be buoyed by strong economic performance and business spend in the US... as well as a continued global push to upgrade on the back of heightened IT security concerns.
A survey of channel partners showed much optimism in Asia, with 44% of APAC-based respondents expecting to see growth, against 36% of EMEA-based companies.
But this demand is not forecast to continue beyond the end of 2019. "After impressive commercial growth this year, maintaining the same level will get harder, particularly toward the end of 2019," Canalys said. "The most successful channel partners will focus on generating higher-value revenue streams around PCs, not just in consulting, but in managed desktop and subscription services for applications and security, leading to more profitable business and stronger customer relationships.
"Asia Pacific will go from strength to strength and gain importance for the global PC vendors in both the consumer and commercial segments," said Canalys analyst Ishan Dutt. "The region's developed markets, such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea, offer growth in emerging segments, such as gaming, Chromebooks and always-connected PCs, while the emerging economies will remain hotspots for PC growth.
"The booming service industries in the emerging markets of India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand will continue to deliver growth for PCs. The start-up culture in these markets has brought SMBs to the fore, with PC vendors moving to offer them OPEX-based models that help control costs.
"Due to the sheer number of such businesses, and their multi-faceted computing requirements, which range from PCs to servers to cloud, the importance of a 'jack-of-all-trades' channel partner cannot be understated."
Graphics: courtesy Canalys