Monday, 24 June 2013 06:58

An Exabyte a month by 2016 - Australia's Internet future

By
Matt Roughan Matt Roughan

Australian internet traffic will increase by more than five times to hit one Exabyte of data a month by 2016.

A University of Adelaide mathematician and Internet researcher, Professor Matt Roughan has predicted that massive amounts of data traffic add weight to the need for upgrading Australia's aging telecommunications infrastructure with the NBN.

Professor Matt Roughan is developing traffic matrices to help produce more efficient Internet networks. "One argument against whether the NBN is worthwhile has been that it will give us capacity that's not needed," says Professor Roughan. "But history in Internet traffic globally has shown that every time you add capacity, new innovations come along to fill it."

Professor Roughan has won a 'Test of Time' award for research he conducted a decade ago at the US telecoms giant AT&T, devising large-scale network traffic matrices to help plan network designs. The Australian Computing Machinery (ACM) SIGMETRICS Test of Time Award was announced at a conference in Pittsburgh last week.

"It was probably some of the best work I've done," says Professor Roughan. "We chose modelling assumptions about network traffic which have survived the test of time and are still relevant today, despite the massive increases in Internet use."

Professor Roughan says that when he came to Australia and joined the University of Adelaide in 2004, the incredible figure of 1 Eabyte per month volume of traffic for Australia was considered unlikely.

"Few people could see where such massive growth could come from. Then companies such as YouTube and Facebook stepped in to provide content sourced from the Internet's users themselves," he says. "The massive demand for these and other new services and applications has kept traffic growing exponentially over the past decade."

Professor Roughan's analysis based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that Australian internet traffic has in fact followed the trend predicted in 2004, doubling every 475 days. Professor Roughan is now working to generate new internet traffic matrices which will help network providers design efficient communications networks to cope with the increasing traffic.

"We are looking at the maths behind the patterns of internet traffic against which network designs can be tested for efficiency," he says. "But Australia also needs the physical infrastructure to support this rapid growth."

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Graeme Philipson

Graeme Philipson is senior associate editor at iTWire. He is one of Australia’s longest serving and most experienced IT journalists. He is author of the only definitive history of the Australian IT industry, ‘A Vision Splendid: The History of Australian Computing.’

He has been in the high tech industry for more than 30 years, most of that time as a market researcher, analyst and journalist. He was founding editor of MIS magazine, and is a former editor of Computerworld Australia. He was a research director for Gartner Asia Pacific and research manager for the Yankee Group Australia. He was a long time weekly IT columnist in The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, and is a recipient of the Kester Award for lifetime achievement in IT journalism.

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