Tuesday, 03 July 2018 00:44

Fifty million self-driving vehicles on world’s roads by 2026: study

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Juniper Research autonomous vehicles index Juniper Research autonomous vehicles index

More than 50 million autonomous, self-driving vehicles are expected to be on the world’s roads by the end of 2026 – with over 10 million in the US and 15 million in the Far East and China, according to new research findings.

And in comparison, the global market will account for 1.5 billion vehicles on the road during the same year — 2026 — Juniper Research claims.

The new research —  Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS: Market Trends 2018-2026 — found that a confluence of societal shifts, smart city mobility schemes and technology infrastructure would kickstart autonomous vehicle sales. These include softening demand for vehicle ownership driven by the emergence of concepts such as mobility-as-a-service, driving safety benefits and establishment of underlying V2X (vehicle-to-anything) communications.

Juniper evaluated 20 countries according to their readiness for autonomous vehicles, analysing nations’ enthusiasm for autonomous vehicles and the likelihood of autonomous vehicles operating in the country.

The analysis also considered regulatory policies, trials in operation, digital and city infrastructure in place and the participation of local technology firms and organisations.

Leading nations in Juniper’s Autonomous Vehicle Country Readiness Index 2018 are:

  • United States
  • Singapore
  • Japan
  • United Kingdom
  • South Korea
  • The Netherlands
  • Malaysia
  • India
  • China
  • France

Research author Michael Larner said, “The US has all the key ingredients for autonomous vehicles to operate at scale. Federal and local authorities supporting AV trials, Silicon Valley and universities spawn firms that can deliver the technology, many local competitors are introducing driverless technologies plus the car remains vital for commuting and leisure travel.”

The research found that OEMs would incrementally add driverless technologies to newer vehicle models.

It also predicted that 2019 would be a milestone year, with the launch of vehicles where the driver’s full attention is no longer required.

The research claimed that the US and China would be the key regions to watch as new policies and guidelines for autonomous vehicles flourished – and combined, the two countries would account for nearly 65% of global autonomous vehicles sold in 2019.

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Peter Dinham

Peter Dinham is a co-founder of iTWire and a 35-year veteran journalist and corporate communications consultant. He has worked as a journalist in all forms of media – newspapers/magazines, radio, television, press agency and now, online – including with the Canberra Times, The Examiner (Tasmania), the ABC and AAP-Reuters. As a freelance journalist he also had articles published in Australian and overseas magazines. He worked in the corporate communications/public relations sector, in-house with an airline, and as a senior executive in Australia of the world’s largest communications consultancy, Burson-Marsteller. He also ran his own communications consultancy and was a co-founder in Australia of the global photographic agency, the Image Bank (now Getty Images).

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