Has IDC got the wrong number for iPhone?

By Stephen Withers
Wednesday, 20 June 2007 13:08

Your IT - Mobility

IDC has poured cold water on Apple's iPhone just days after a previous survey led M:Metrics to talk up the new entry to the cellphone stakes. But are the new numbers sound?

IDC says "only 10 percent of respondents were interested in paying full price and signing a two-year contract with AT&T", whereas M:Metrics found 14 percent of iPhone-aware mobile subscribers have a "strong interest" in buying Apple's forthcoming phone.

"While the allure of owning the next 'cool' device will undoubtedly have early adopters – and die-hard Apple fans – queuing up to get the iPhone regardless of the price, the associated costs of ownership will persuade many others into a 'wait and see' position," said Shiv Bakhshi, director of mobility research at IDC.

Since M:Metrics checked that respondents were aware of the iPhone's price and that it will only be available from AT&T, how do we reconcile these two sets of results and conclusions?

The most obvious difference is in the sample size. M:Metrics had 11,060 respondents, IDC just 456. The sample space was also different, with M:Metrics apparently sampling from mobile phone subscribers, while IDC looked at online mobile phone shoppers.

Is there a difference between these two groups? Yes! If you were planning to buy an iPhone, you're unlikely to be shopping for a new mobile shortly before it goes on sale. It seems clear that IDC's sample is biassed towards those who have already decided against buying an iPhone.

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