Demand for iPhone 26 million strong in US, UK and iPod base: survey

By Stan Beer
Monday, 18 June 2007 11:07

Mobility

Apple would be well justified in anticipating a successful iPhone launch based on new survey. According to Seattle-based mobiles market analyst firm M:Metrics, a new survey of mobile phone subscribers shows that more than 19 million US subscribers and nearly 7 million UK subscribers have "strong interest" in buying an iPhone. However, about half the new iPhone customers could well be existing iPod owners.

The survey results, based on sample sizes of 11,060 in the US and 5,293 in the UK, equates to a whopping 9% of the US market and an even bigger 16% of the UK market registering high interest in buying the soon to be released Apple phone.

Significantly, there is a high correlation between the level of interest in acquiring an iPhone and MP3 music player owners. According to the survey, 64% of those with a strong interest in buying an iPhone already own an MP3 player. Given that the dominant MP3 player on the market is the iPod, with about 80% market share, the survey would appear to suggest that more than half of intending buyers could from the iPod customer base.

The finding prompted Paul Goode, vice president and senior analyst, from M:Metrics London office to note: "It will be interesting to see at what rate consumers replace their digital music player with an iPhone."

Just as interesting, however, will be the other 36% of intending iPhone purchasers who don't own a music player because they represent a potential totally new customer demographic for Apple - the pure smartphone users. Although Steve Jobs described the iPhone as the best iPod ever built, it is the far bigger mobile phones market that Apple wants to get a slice of.

Of further note are the consumers who registered a "neutral interest" in purchasing an iPhone. About 5.5 million (12%) subscribers in the UK and 15.8 million (8%) in the US have in effect not ruled out the possibility that they may become iPhone owners.

The survey highlights the incredible mystique and market tension that Apple has managed to create about its new device, even though very few consumers have ever seen or touched a pre-release iPhone, let alone tested one. The survey also confirms that the first batch of iPhones to hit the market will move like hotcakes.

What remains to be seen, however, is whether the expensive iPhone will be able to survive on its merits as a smart mobile phone in a tough market where consumers are used to upgrading their handsets frequently. Tne true test will come when the early adopters have had a chance to see whether iPhone meets their needs as a phone and a portable email and Internet device.