While the pause that refreshes is a famously well known term about a fizzy drink, consumers awaiting the next iPhone are not drinking up the soon-to-be older iPhone 4S in the quantities they were earlier.
That’s just common sense, because people in general obviously aren’t stupid – why buy something now that will be both massively superseded in a few weeks’ time, and which could be much cheaper to boot should you still want the older version?
First up, there’s Verizon’s CFO, Fran Shammo, who let out a whammo with the suggestion that a “major phone” will be launching in the fourth quarter, thus giving credence to the rumours that an iPhoen 5 will be launching in the October timeframe, as opposed to the August 7 “leak” timeframe of a couple of weeks ago.
Then there’s analyst “evidence” of a “handset pause”, as discussed at Marketwatch, where the famous Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray expects to see iPhone shipments “in the 25 million-to-27 million range for the June quarter”, even though he covers his analytical backside by saying shipments might be higher at 28 to 29m units.
Buying frenzies generally occur after a major launch, and obviously slow down somewhat as the year progresses, with a further unquantified “slowdown” in sales expected to occur in the lead up to the new iPhone 5 launch, even if people are unsure exactly when that will be.
Then you have “evidence” like chipmake Qualcomm expecting a “strong December quarter”, and with Qualcomm’s chips expected to be in the iPhone 5, this is taken as meaning a big bada-bing bada-boom for iPhone 5 sales in that golden sales period – without Qualcomm needing to say a single thing about iThings whatsoever.
Marketwatch then quotes “James Faucette” of Pacific Crest going on about a “mother of all handset pauses” being built into Qualcomm’s stock price, because everyone that know anything knows not to buy a new iPhone until the new iPhone 5 drops into retail stores, at which point the iFrenzy will begin, and the refreshing of smartphones, the refreshing of iOS experiences and the refreshing of sales after one mother of a pause can finally begin again!
It won’t be the pause that refreshes, as such, but the refresh after the pause the market is waiting to see, one that will bring the refreshing joy of sales to retailers still wondering when the planet’s economic malaise will end, with a fantastic iPhone launch one of the best “stimulus” packages the retail market can get!