Paid and free content can coexist

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Forrester Research's assertion that online video sales are doomed by the arrival of free, advertiser-supported services seems questionable.

Sure, most of us do prefer 'free' to 'pay' as a general principle. But an surprising (to me, at least) number of people buy TV shows on DVD after they have screened on free-to-air, so clearly there is a market for clean - in the sense of being unsullied by advertising - video content.

Ad-supported shows clearly have a place, and Joost is lining up to tap the market for premium content paid for by advertisers. While that on-demand model may work in some markets (those where all-you-can-eat Internet plans are the order of the day), it is less attractive for users whose ISPs only offer capped plans with an additional off-peak data allowance. For them, an asynchronous 'download then watch later' model makes much more sense.

The real problem is producers' continued insistence on doing business on a country-by-country basis. As long as that happens, there will be a strong incentive to download unauthorised copies of TV shows and movies via BitTorrent or other peer-to-peer protocols. But where people can find ways of getting access to paid download services such as iTunes from other territories, they will - amazing as it may seem - pay a couple of dollars to watch the latest episode of their favourite shows instead of using BitTorrent.

And any technical problems regarding watching downloaded or streamed content on a TV rather than a computer apply equally whether the material is paid for, free, or ad-supported. Products such as the Apple TV and media players from D-Link and other manufacturers help, as does the arrival of small, quiet computers that can find a place in the living room next to (or in place of) the DVD player and set top box.

So don't write off paid services just yet.

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