Possibility of asteroid hitting Mars upped to 1 out of 25

William Atkins
Saturday, 29 December 2007 19:14

Science - Space

One week ago the chance of Mars getting smacked by 2007 WD5 asteroid was 1 out of 75. Based on historical data of the asteroid’s path, that possibility of a collision has been raised to 1 out of 25, or four percent.

Additional information about the asteroid and the planet Mars colliding was written up in the December 22, 2007 iTWire article “Place your bets: Will asteroid hit Mars in January?”.

Scientists with the Near-Earth Object Program, located at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Pasadena, California), reported the new percentages on Friday, December 28, 2007, after refining their trajectory estimate for the asteroid.

Archival information on the asteroid was studied recently. Its orbit and flight path were re-calculated based on this information. Consequently, scientists have updated their predictions on the chance of a collision.

Further updates will be coming over the next five weeks as the asteroid emerges from the back of the Moon. However, scientists are predicting that the chance will decrease when this new data comes in. But, we’ll wait and see.

The 164-foot (50 meter) wide asteroid still is a long-shot to actually hit the planet Mars. However, scientists are very interested in actually seeing such a space object hit the planet in order to learn more about such space collisions.

Don Yeomans, manager at the Near-Earth Object Program, states, “I think it'll be cool. Usually when an asteroid is headed toward Earth, I'm not rooting for an impact." [CBS News “Chance Of Asteroid Hitting Mars Increases” December 28, 2007]