Study predicts seabed response to climate change

Peter Dinham
Thursday, 15 October 2009 07:09

Science - Climate

Sedsim has been used successfully in Germany to model coastal changes in the Baltic Sea where the coastline retreats on average 45 metres every 100 years, and Dr Griffiths said that, in Australia, the versatile model will be applied to predict the effects of various disturbances on seabed environments and develop response scenarios and coastal protection strategies.

According to Dr Griffiths, three climate change scenarios were used to conduct simulations from 2000 to 2050. The extreme scenario model – which assumes highest rainfall, highest sea level rise and maximum sediment flow – indicated that:

•         Many offshore oil and gas development sites will be susceptible to increased erosion

•         Predicted changes in cyclone activity in the Ningaloo region may cause significant damage to the reef

•         Wind-driven waves and storm events in southern regions will lead to increased beach and cliff erosion

•         Temperature and salinity changes in northern waters will impact marine life.

“There are still many uncertainties about future climate change and impacts, however the research provides a useful starting point to discuss possible response strategies,” Dr Griffiths said.

“It emphasises the importance of seabed evolution in managing coastal and offshore resources and infrastructure planning and design.”

Dr Griffiths said the CSIRO hoped to continually improve the model as new data are collected “which will give us more accurate predictions for the future.”