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Mobile operators get fixed price spectrum renewal in $3b Government windfall

The Government has offered Australia's three mobile operators, and vividwireless, renewal of their existing spectrum allocated on 15 year licences in the late 90s and early 2000s at set prices, while the Government expects to rake in $3 billion.

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What are the odds?

Opinion and Analysis

The second rule told us that the order of drawing is not important.

This means that there are a large number of sequences which can produce the same set of numbers.

In the Bulgarian case, with six numbers (calculated in exactly the same manner as the 42, 41, 40 method), there are 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720 different ordering combinations.  Thus our earlier number of 3.78 billion actually represents 720 identical results. 

So, dividing our very large odds by 720 gives us the true odds of 1:5.24 million.  In other words, there are only 5.24 million unique combinations of numbers in the entire lottery.  You want a guaranteed win in the lottery?  That's how many unique entries you'd have to submit!

Incidentally, Microsoft Excel has a formula to calculate exactly this value.  If you open Excel and type into a cell =COMBIN(42,6) you will see the correct result.  You can use this to calculate the odds in your own country.

Now, here's where people's intuition starts to go a little crazy.

If I were to ask 100 people what are the odds of the sets of numbers on successive draws being identical, most would start trying to multiply 5.24 million by itself to get some kind of fantastical result.

That's wrong - it would only be correct if I have provided a specific set of numbers and asked for the odds of getting exactly those numbers twice.

Instead, in this instance, we really don't care what the first set of numbers are - we simply want to know the odds of getting them again.  Interestingly, this is exactly the same as asking what my chances are of selecting the same numbers in the original draw.
 

So, the final question - how unusual is this?



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