Dual Mode handsets - are Wifi/cell phones hype or the Next Big Thing?

Adam Turner
Wednesday, 28 February 2007 18:15

Opinion and Analysis

Analysts group Ovum says there is "Too much hype around dual mode phones in the US". It predicts that only just over 2 per cent of mobile subscribers will have purchased dual mode services by the end of 2010 - which equates to less than five and a half million people.

"Equipment vendors have been fixated on dual mode phones as the key form of fixed-mobile convergence, but the people responsible for implementing this at the carriers are really skeptical that the devices and solutions are ever going to be ready for prime time," says Jan Dawson, the report's author and VP of Ovum's US Enterprise Practice.

Hang on, the "carriers" are skeptical? Of course the carriers are skeptical, they're the ones most threatened by dual mode handsets. Dawson says the telcos should consider other forms of fixed-mobile convergence such as "identity convergence" - which allows users to assume the same identity-phone number, email address, usernames and passwords - whether they are using a wired or wireless device. This sounds a lot like the old idea of "unified messaging" but Dawson says web giants are beating the telcos to it.

"But it is actually the online portals - Yahoo!, Google, MSN and others - that are taking the lead in this area, and not the carriers, which risk being left behind. Remote access and control is nascent today but there's a big opportunity here for the carriers to invest in technology and capture this opportunity as it arises," Dawson says.

So it actually sounds like Ovum is saying dual mode phones will be big, but it will take a while because carriers will drag their feet. It's also interesting that Dawson refers to customers who "purchased dual mode services" - so I assume he's not including those people who get sick of waiting for their telco to come to the party and just download Skype to their smartphone anyway.

VoIP is perhaps the biggest threat telcos have ever faced and it has the potential to put them out of business if they don't come to terms with it. New world players like Google, Yahoo!, MSN would certainly love to get a slice of telco revenues.

Regardless of which analysts you believe, it's clear telcos can't stick their heads in the sand and hope VoIP over Wifi goes away. If they don't answer the call for such services, someone else will.