Why IDC-Novell survey is a dud

Sam Varghese
Tuesday, 17 March 2009 15:21

Opinion and Analysis

To all those sceptics out there, have a look at the white paper. Percentages tend to muddy the water, so I'll deal with actual numbers.

Some pertinent points: IDC surveyed a total of 330 companies using an online form. A total of 182 had Linux server systems in use, 129 were using UNIX server operating systems (I take this to mean non-Linux) and 320 had Windows server operating systems in use.

Of the 330, 134 were from Asia and the Pacific, 118 from the Americas and 134 from Europe. Ninety were from the manufacturing sector, 80 each were from financial services and retail, 54 from government and 26 from other industries. Every organisation had more than 100 employees.

The margin of error? IDC does not provide any indication of this. Neither is there any clue as to the statistical significance of the survey numbers.

Novell may have hoped that the survey would come up with the finding that companies which are using non-Linux systems were looking to engage Linux vendors in order to reduce costs due to the cost-cutting they have had to make.

On the contrary, IDC states: "First, the increase in the availability of and the interest in ultra-low-cost servers places downward pressure on traditional operating environment solutions. This trend is not all positive for Linux server operating system vendors; in fact, it may lead to an affinity of nonpaid Linux solutions." (emphasis mine again).

Why then do we have headlines like Linux gaining strength in downturn? Beats me.

Is it surprising that a company which has been using Linux (and has obviously benefitted, else it would have jettisoned the operating system) would like to expand its use, especially at a time when money is hard to come by? Not to me.

Let's hear what IDC themselves have to say: "IDC research finds that Linux users are clearly satisfied with their choice to deploy Linux, and during trying economic times, the potential for those same customers to ramp up their deployment of Linux is strong."

Here's IDC again: "The economic downturn of 2009 will be a demarcation line that is likely to highlight an acceleration toward adoption of standardized (sic) architecture across the industry. The standardization (sic) layers will include standardized (sic) blade chassis, x86 servers, Linux, and virtualization (sic) software."

But this is exactly what has been happening ever since the start of the millennium. Linux on commodity hardware has been dominating the server space - we don't need IDC to tell us that. The trend has never varied.

So where is the story?