What evidence exists to show that Vista is driving people to GNU/Linux? Let's take the individual who wants to buy a new computer. He or she buys a machine with Windows - that is the norm. And these days, you can ask for XP instead of Vista if you wish - as many businesses do.
Even if you did not want Windows on that PC, there is no way that the average retailer would have the skill or the patience to install GNU/Linux on it - and continue to support it for the normal one-year period. You would have to do the installation yourself - and how many brave souls are willing to undertake that?
Let's get this straight - if we are saying that GNU/Linux is being picked in preference to Vista, then we need some statistics showing that a sizeable number of people are asking their retailers to install the free operating systems on their new PCs in preference to Vista. In the absence of any numbers - and I doubt whether you'll ever get them - such claims remain just anecdotal claims.
Another fact used to try and bolster the claim that Vista is turning people to Linux is the emergence and runaway success of the sub-notebooks, the eeePC foremost, which run GNU/Linux. But how many among the buyers of these gadgets - and that is exactly what they are - are using them to replace their primary PCs?
The eeePC and other notebooks are a hit because everything works. There is limited functionality but then that's all the buyer is looking for. Nerds and geeks drool over it as they would over any gadget. Businessmen find them handy to carry from place to place - they weigh very little. Compared to something like my IBM Stink... er, ThinkPad, the eeePC is a featherweight. Even a child can carry it around - as indeed I've seen some children do.
But is it reasonable to assume that every eeePC purchase means that there is one less purchase of a computer of any shape or size running Vista? The simple answer is no. Logic tells us that - and there are no figures to prove otherwise.