NBN Co signs its 4000th customer, millions to go

Alex Zaharov-Reutt
Tuesday, 03 January 2012 20:48

Opinion and Analysis

Australia's new government created national broadband company, NBN Co, has signed its 4000th customer, and while the company's own internal projections had user numbers around ten times larger, the fact a government program hasn't as yet lived up to its own projected milestones is a fact of life these days.

A brand new 1Gbps-capable fibre broadband network is being rolled out across Australia over the rest of the decade (and possibly beyond) by Australia's Federal Government, having originally won office in 2007 partly based on a promise to deliver a faster broadband network.

The original plan evolved from a fibre to the node (FttN) network into one that would be fibre to the home or premise, (FttH) with the initial 12Mbps minimum morphing into a 100Mbps network when the FttH idea was born.

Then the NBN morphed into a network that would definitely also be delivering 1Gpbs speeds to consumers or businesses that wanted it and could afford whatever it would cost to get such a superultramegafast connection.

Although the NBN will bring fibre to almost everyone, and 12Mbps-capable satellite access to those in areas so remote they're too expensive to send fibre optic cable to, such a network still takes time to build. People will still be waiting to connect or will be connecting for the first time in 2020.

Given the history behind the cost arguments around the NBN, it no surprise to see some criticism emerge from Opposition Communications Spokesperson Malcolm Turnbull on the fact that 4000 customers have been connected to date, of which nearly half (1700) are not fibre broadband customers but satellite customers, when NBN Co's own figures expected around ten times that number of connected customers by now.

Of course Mr Turnbull and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott had more to say. Mr Abbott noted that it had currently cost around $1 billion to connect 4,000 people NBN customers (out of a total of around 18,000 homes that are ready for the owner to sign up for an NBN Internet connection), which equates to around $250,000 per customer.

Naturally, if you extrapolate that to 10 million homes, you get a figure somewhat higher than the promised AUD $36 billion cost, a cost which some think might blow out to at least AUD $50 billion, or more.

The Opel WiMAX plan to cover nearly 700,000 square kilometres with a wholesale broadband provider to more regional and remote areas of Australia underserved by fixed or wireless networks was axed to save $1 billion, but had it proceeded, would surely have been providing a high speed Internet access alternative to the Next G and other 3G/3.5G networks, and would presumably have been in use by far many more than the 4000 people NBN Co has signed up to date, but clearly, we will never know given the program's untimely axing.

News Limited's Daily Telegraph and Fairfax Media's Sydney Morning Herald have reported the exact details of the actual numbers vs the expected projections, which in short show there's a long road to go before the NBN is used by tens of thousands, let alone hundreds of thousands or even millions of customers.

However, the NBN Co will get there and the project will muddle through and plod along, as most massive government projects do, and it will eventually arrive, over time and over budget.

The news that targets haven't been met really isn't a surprise. It would have been a surprise had the targets been met.

So, a lucky few have access to next-gen NBN services today, with millions upon millions of new NBN customers to come.

Until then, you'll just have to make do with ADSL 1 or preferably 2, 2G or 3G wireless broadband, 3.5G and 4G wireless broadband, upgraded cable networks, or specialised Wi-Fi/WiMax/other 4G connectivity.

And one day, perhaps soon, perhaps not, the promised ultrafast glitter of fibre optic cable finds its way to your street, into your home and finally, into your life.

Let's hope it happens for everyone sooner rather than later... even if that's impossible at the moment. Good luck!