Alex Zaharov-Reutt
Friday, 15 February 2008 05:27
Opinion and Analysis
Page 2 of 4
iSuppli then go on to talk up the growth prospects of the casual gamer market, for not everyone has time to spend hours per day on hardcore gaming – but there are plenty of people who have the time to casually play some favourite titles and many of these are predicted to purchase the Wii.
This, of course, doesn’t really take into account the fact that Sony and Microsoft have had pretty good success in the casual gaming worlds, too, especially for Sony with the PS2 – but this report is about the current next-gen consoles only, which they specifically make note of.
Still, Microsoft and Sony will want some of the casual gaming action on their next-gen consoles too, and we can be sure there will be some big announcements from both this year in that arena specifically to try and blunt the Wii’s current casual gaming dominance.
So, how many consoles does iSuppli predict for 2011? They say that the Wii will have an installed base of 37.7 million units, representing a ‘Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)’ of 20.3 percent from 2007.
But it’s here that iSuppli think that the PS3 will at last rule the next-gen console roost, just edging out the Wii with an installed base of 38.4 million units, ‘rising at a CAGR of 39 percent from 10.3 million in 2007’, but they only give the Xbox 360 32.3 million units by 2011 ‘rising at a CAGR of 15.4 percent from 18.2 million in 2007’.
They then make note of something I remember predicting long ago: that each console would end up with roughly the same market share as the other, as they are all amazing games consoles and entertainment devices in their own right, with a number of users wealthy and happy enough to own all three.
iSuppli say that the PS3 will then have a 35.4% share of the market, the Wii at 34.8% and the Xbox 360 at 29.8%.
So, what do I think Microsoft and Sony will do to stop the winning Wii? Please read onto page 3.
