To make news just rewrite press release with updated figures

Stuart Corner
Tuesday, 21 November 2006 11:24

Opinion and Analysis

The ACMA notes in this year's report that: "ACMA commissioned economic consultants ACIL Tasman, in association with telecommunications specialists Gibson Quai AAS, to examine the benefits flowing from changes in the telecommunications sector in 2005–06...ACIL Tasman estimated the benefits flowing from changes in the telecommunications sector. They estimated that: – during 2005–06, the additional production in the Australian economy flowing from effects of the 1997 telecommunications reforms and subsequent developments, over and above those already embedded in the economy at the end of 2004–05, was worth around $2.5 billion."

However this $15.2 billion figure, even if accurate, is not the result solely of the government's much-lauded reforms. As the ACMA notes: "The consumer and business benefits from telecommunications services result from new technologies (which provide new services or lower costs to users) and competition (which speeds the take-up of new technologies and the pace of price reduction), and the interaction between the two."

Note that no attempt whatsoever has been made to divi up the contribution from reforms and that from technology developments, which I suggest would be very significant.

And what about the prior figure of $12.5 billion to the end of 2004-2005 Where did that come from? Well ACIL Tasman can take the blame for that one also. But before that the party responsible was the Allen Consulting Group which carried out the first such estimate  in the 2001-2002 performance report and updated the estimate for the following year.

The ACA's report for 2001-2002 contained a summary of the methodology used, and bedtime reading it ain't. All subsequent benefit estimates rest on this foundation.

I would have no idea how accurately they reflect the reality, but hey, they make great headlines, and great copy for speeches.