Stuart Corner
Wednesday, 11 June 2008 11:48
Opinion and Analysis
Page 2 of 3
He explains that the aim of the report is to develop "a framework for understanding where costs and benefits related to the deployment of next generation broadband might accrue across the economy and society, and suggest how these should be accounted for in a cost benefit analysis...based on our best understanding of the capabilities of existing technologies and likely commercial developments."
So, does the report endorse the Australian Government's four point seven billion dollar fuelled dash towards a national goal based on near ubiquitous FTTN? No it does not.
The report examines three scenarios: wait and see (and potentially invest at some point in the future); fibre to the curb (node in Australian parlance) and fibre to the home. It notes that: "These options are not necessarily mutually exclusive."
Its time frame for FTTC deployment is five years, similar to Australia's, and for FTTH 10 years, but in both cases - in the much smaller and more densely populated UK - is projects penetration after these times to only 80 percent of the population.
Quite detailed cost benefit analyses of all three options are undertaken but nevertheless the report's authors admit that these are incomplete and they do not provide clear cut conclusions. However, they do say: "In terms of timing, we conclude that there may be benefits to delaying large scale deployment in the short term, and costs in the medium term. The reason for this is that the resolution of uncertainty in the short term will facilitate improved choices."
They continue: "The right choice of technology is best left to the private sector in an enabling environment where potential barriers to investment are removed, including possible barriers to the replacement of copper by fibre that would lower operating costs compared to running two networks in parallel.
"However, not all of these benefits are likely to be realised without complementary changes to policy and the way that we do things. Further, not all of the benefits that are realised will be available to support private investment.
The Australian way of doing things has not been to mandate technologies but to set a goal against which proponents must bid -12Mbps in five years to 98 percent of the population - that is biased towards FTTN.
CONTINUED
