The Government has offered Australia's three mobile operators, and vividwireless, renewal of their existing spectrum allocated on 15 year licences in the late 90s and early 2000s at set prices, while the Government expects to rake in $3 billion.
It seems to me that there is a 'breakthrough' price for consumer electronics. With CD players it was $A200, with DVD players it was $A100. Once those prices were reached, there was a seemingly immediate move to the corresponding format.
With HD movies, there are two considerations: the price of a real HD TV, and the price of the players. Both will need to fall below the critical level (whatever that turns out to be) before disc sales will boom.
The problem facing the local Blu-ray camp is that even if it does maintain a significant lead in Australia, this is a tiny market. If consumers in the US and Europe settle on HD DVD, our preference will count for little.
And what about China and India? Massive markets that will want low-cost solutions. If you spent your working days cranking out hi-def hardware for westerners, would you be happy with low-def home entertainment?
China is beginning to use its favourable trade imbalance to buy overseas assets. Could it follow Sony's example and buy a US studio to ensure a supply of content for a home-grown hardware standard aimed at the export market?
If a next-gen video standard appears before the Blu-ray vs HD DVD war is settled, I'd say it would serve the industry right.
My colleague Alex Zaharov-Reutt is confident prices will drop to affordable levels by this time next year, but I think he's being too optimistic. Player prices will almost certainly fall significantly and I'd like to see some of the disc premium disappear too, but people will still be reluctant to buy HD DVD or Blu-ray players because the large, real HD TVs that are needed to make hi-def movies worthwhile will still be out of the reach of the mainstream market.
Despite Mr Everage's penchant for gadgets, Ms Everage - as much as she likes a good movie - is going to say "You want to spend hundreds of dollars on a new player, the discs will cost more, and we won't be able to see any difference on our TV? I don't think so!" (If the dynamics are different in your household, feel free to assign the dialog appropriately.)
David Bass
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