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Did Microsoft push Taylor or did he jump?

Opinion and Analysis

The events of the past couple of days at Microsoft are perplexing to say the least. On Monday, Microsoft launches Windows Live Messenger with great fanfare. Playing a central role is the vice president of marketing for Windows Live and CEO Steve Ballmer’s protégé Martin Taylor. By Wednesday, Taylor is out the door.

Thirteen years is a long time to spend in one place. In the case of Martin Taylor, many thought of it as an apprenticeship. The young man, still just 36, was being groomed to be the heir apparent to Ballmer. He had kicked some serious goals in his jobs. His strategy for sidelining Linux is one the media love to focus on.

In his new role as the head of marketing for Windows Live, to which he was appointed in March, Taylor was front and centre at Microsoft. This is after all the product platform that is meant to launch (or relaunch) Microsoft into the web services space, where advertising revenue is the name of the game. Demonstrating how easily the mighty can fall from grace, within the space of a day the name Martin Taylor is now hard to find on Microsoft’s website.

So what happened? Not surprisingly, no-one is saying. Microsoft’s statement hints that it decided to terminate Taylor’s tenure at the company. Taylor has gone to ground and is nowhere to be found. Given his seniority, length of service and the circumstances of his departure, no doubt there would have been a considerable severance package. And no doubt, the package would have included a gagging clause to spare everyone the embarrassment of what really happened at Redmond.

Some are postulating that the elevation of Ray Ozzie to chief software architect last week is responsible for Taylor’s sudden demise. Ozzie wants to surround himself with his own people or so the theory goes. However, the theory does not stand up to close scrutiny. Taylor was still Ballmer’s golden boy just two days ago. If Ozzie wanted to make a change, he could have waited until he had his chosen appointment lined up and then eased Taylor out. At present, there appears to be no-one waiting in the wings for the plumb job.

Others are suggesting that Taylor’s demise spells the beginning of the end for Ballmer. Taylor was his heir apparent after all. In fact, it may be true that Ballmer’s days at Microsoft are numbered. His performance in the top executive position has hardly been exemplary. The company has stagnated badly under his leadership and this is reflected in the depressed share price.

However, Ballmer’s less than impressive performance still doesn’t explain why Taylor was axed so suddenly. There is a possibility that Taylor walked. Knowing that his boss and friend was on the way out, he may have seen the writing on the wall and taken some pre-emptive action, working out a deal in the process. Or else there may be a purge underway, which involves cutting Ballmer’s feet out from under him. If either is the case, expect to see an announcement involving Ballmer in the near future.

Whether Taylor jumped or was pushed, there is no doubt that Microsoft is going through a period of upheaval, the likes of which the company has not seen in its history. Bill Gates is going, Steve Ballmer’s tenure is tenuous, senior executives are departing without a moment’s notice, and Microsoft is trying to reinvent itself as an online player, an area where the company has never been able to make money.

The next two years should reveal whether Ray Ozzie is the miracle man that will continue to make Microsoft the force in the early part of 21st century that it has been for the last two decades. If not, Bill Gates may well have to consider cutting short his early retirement or watch the company he built crumble to dust. As for Taylor, there may be an opening at Google or Yahoo if his severance package allows it.

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