Stan Beer
Tuesday, 10 March 2009 20:03
Opinion and Analysis
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There
is a growing feeling that the coming week could well shape up to be one
of the most significant turning points in Australian telecommunications
history. The Federal Government, represented by Communications Minister
Stephen Conroy, has a monumental decision to make and an equally
monumental problem on its hands.
The decision of course is which bidder will be
chosen to build the National Broadband Network (NBN), estimated to cost
$15 billion. The problem is that none of the bidders in the race has
the necessary credentials to build it.
Under the present
telecommunications regime, the only organisation with the necessary
capital, resources and infrastructure to build a FTTN network that will
reach 98% of Australia's population is Telstra. And of course Telstra
is not in the race.
The Government knows this, Telstra knows this, the public knows this
and even the NBN bidders know this. Whoever is named the winner or
co-winners of the NBN tender have not got a ghost of a chance of
building a FTTN network without the cooperation of Telstra in some
shape or form.
Looking at the bidders - Axia, Acacia, Optus, TransACT or the Tasmanian
Government - none has access to the necessary risk capital to chance its arm
against Telstra, not even with the promised $4.7 billion Government
backing. It's not just a matter of raising the extra $10 billion cash.
Building the NBN will require access to Telstra's copper - something
Telstra will fight. It will require Telstra not to build a competing
service - something Telstra will almost certainly try to do.
It will require the backing of capital prepared to risk huge sums
against a powerful incumbent which already has much of the needed
infrastructure, human resources, expertise and capital in place.
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