Stan Beer
Tuesday, 03 March 2009 08:52
Opinion and Analysis
Page 1 of 2
IT
analyst group Gartner has officially said what we've all known and
feared since the last quarter of 2008 - the PC industry is going to
suffer its worst decline on record this year. Not even the burgeoning
netbooks market can save the market from a decline that will make the
dot com and post Y2K busts seem like booms.
Gartner predicts PC shipments totaling 257 million units in 2009,
a devastating 11.9% decline from 2008. Previously, PC units experienced
their worst decline in 2001 when unit shipments contracted 3.2%.
The extent of the decline is testimony to the extraordinary weakness of
the global economy, where the PC market has in the past proven to be
remarkably resilient. According to Gartner, cash strapped PC users are
simply making do with what they have and not being drawn into new purchases.
“The
PC industry is facing extraordinary conditions as the global economy
continues to weaken, users stretch PC lifetimes and PC suppliers grow
increasingly cautious,” said George Shiffler, research director at
Gartner.
Unlike in previous downturns, where emerging growth markets escaped the
downturns of mature markets and vice versa, things appear to be bad all
over, according to Gartner.
Both emerging and mature markets are
forecast to suffer unprecedented market slowdowns. Up to this point,
emerging markets collectively recorded their lowest growth in 2002,
11.1%. Mature markets recorded their lowest growth in 2001, negative
7.9%. Both emerging and mature markets will handily surpass these
previous lows in 2009, with emerging markets expected to post a decline
of 10.4% and mature markets a decline of 13%.
“Growth in both
emerging and mature markets will be driven by similar dynamics even if
the precise impacts vary somewhat. Slower GDP growth will generally
weaken demand and slow new penetration, lengthening PC lifetimes will
reduce replacements, and supplier caution will keep inventories at
historic lows until confidence in a recovery eventually firms,” Mr.
Shiffler said.
“The impact of reduced replacements will be especially acute in mature
markets, where replacements are estimated to account for around 80% of
shipments.”
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