Has Blu-ray won the HD war or just round 1?

Stan Beer
Monday, 25 June 2007 17:25

Opinion and Analysis

With the announcement that Blockbuster has decided to give HD DVD the flick from shelves of 1450 stores after an initial trial of 250 stores, many market watchers have declared Blu-ray the winner of the high definition video format wars. However, the HD DVD camp is far from admitting defeat and they claim to have some good reasons. But do they?

As it stands, current sales figures show that Sony-backed Blu-ray disks are outselling Toshiba-backed HD DVD titles by more than two to one. The same thing goes for rentals, which is why Blockbuster has given HD shelf space in most of its US stores to Blu-ray movies only.

On top of this, Blu-ray has the support of more major movie studios than HD DVD. How much longer Universal will stick with its exclusively HD DVD stance is open to question.

Then there is the question of high definition players. HD DVD players have definitely outsold standalone Blu-ray players in the US. By the HD DVD camp's own figures, it has 60% of the standalone market, selling 150,000 players compared to 100,000 standalone Blu-ray players.

However, Sony has sold about 1.5 million PS3 consoles in the US alone and more than the same again outside the US. Thus, sticking with the US market, there are already ten times as many Blu-ray players as HD DVD players in the homes of US consumers. Blu-ray may have a lower attach rate of high definition movies to its players but with that sort of numerical advantage it's hard to see how HD DVD can prevail.

That said, there is one major advantage that HD DVD has going for it - price. HD DVD players at present can be had for 40% less than the cheapest Blu-ray players. If HD DVD players get cheap enough quickly enough - say around US$150 to US$200 - consumers may consider them a no brainer and snap them up in bulk from major retail outlets. Blu-ray players are still very much a luxury purchase.

Make HD DVD players cheap enough, then consumers may start buying them instead of DVD players and the PS3 driven lead of Blu-ray could be whittled away overnight. If movie studios start sensing that HD DVD players are getting into the hands of more consumers, there is not one shred of doubt that more of them will start supporting the format.

However, at present Sony seems to hold the aces in pack. PS3 owners may not have bought their consoles to play Blu-ray movies but it's a fair bet that many households with a PS3 are playing Blu-ray movies - just ask Blockbuster.