Back to the future: Analysys Mason recommends FTTN over FTTH

Stuart Corner
Monday, 06 September 2010 20:30

IT Policy - Government Tech Policy

UK based consultancy Analysys Mason has lobbed another hand grenade into the NBN camp, telling telcos that they should reconsider costly plans for fibre to the home (FTTH) and focus on copper-based technologies such as FTTN combined with VDSL.

The report contends that the growing power and popularity of wireless technologies and services is undermining the business case for costly FTTH deployments.

"Wireless devices and services will continue to capture new consumer telecoms spend (whether this is incremental or substitutive) because this area has the greatest rate of innovation," Analysys Mason argues.

"This growth makes it more difficult for fixed operators because overall consumer spend on telecoms has long since ceased to grow in developed economies," it says. "Many cable operators have been offering superfast fixed broadband connectivity for some time in Europe and North America, but take-up remains troublingly low."

The findings come from a new Analysys Mason report, "FTTx rollout and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010-2015" and are not directed particularly at the Australian market.

According to the author of the report, principal analyst at Analysys Rupert Mason, "FTTH is often said to be 'future-proof', but the future appears to have veered off in a different direction. The vague promise of future services may appeal to some early FTTH adopters, but will become increasingly ineffective as a selling point unless the rate of innovation in devices and services that are uniquely suitable for FTTH gets some new impetus from vendors and service providers."

He says that: "The future cannot be simply plotted against increasing fixed-line bandwidth." And in a warning likely to strike a particular chord in Australia he says: "Moreover, in an economic environment where governments have to reduce their levels of borrowing, we would expect some to reduce, or rethink, their long-term commitments to fibre roll-outs. Heavy next-generation access investment could be perceived as politically awkward or even inappropriate in markets where budgets for education, health and social welfare are being cut."

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