Sun's move to GPL Java shades of failed Xerox: analyst

Stan Beer
Wednesday, 15 November 2006 14:38

IT Industry - Strategy

But what about the services and support for Java that Sun can bring to the table?

"Sun is to Java is a little bit like Xerox is to Xerox Park," says Dr McIsaac. "They've developed this really great stuff but everybody else makes money from it except Sun.

"Who do you think of these days when you talk about Java (applications)? When you say JEE, you think BEA or IBM. When you say Java Micro Edition, you think of Symbian. Sun says they're associated with Java very closely. I would argue that is not really true. Their association doesn't really translate into customers. Java creates the demand but IBM, BEA, Dell and Sony Ericsson makes the money, while Sun makes a little bit."

So the argument that open sourcing Java under GPL will create a rising tide that will lift Sun is fallacious, according to Dr McIsaac.

"If the market for IT goes up, Intel does well because they own 80% of the desktop market. In Sun's case, the argument that Java will drive demand falls down. Even at the points where it's going to drive demand, Sun only has a small percentage of that market. This is an illusion that Sun carries around with them."

As far as McIsaac is concerned, Sun will never amount to more than being a builder of great hardware boxes.

"Xerox were unable to move from being photocopier sales people and Sun has been unable to move from being the builder of great boxes. There is no link between Java demand and Sun profitability. If there was, why has Sun's revenue dropped by almost half over the past five years while Java's popularity has really grown over the same period.

There is no doubt that McIsaac's final prognosis for Sun is one the company would definitely not like to hear. He says: "The stuff that Sun is really good at, Sparc and Solaris, has a very low value proposition. Volume operating systems Windows and Linux and volume chipsets Intel are more than good enough. Sun have very little to add in that space. The only reason that Sun is still around is that nobody wants to buy them."