Linux, led by Android, tipped to dominate smartphones

By Stuart Corner
Thursday, 15 October 2009 06:35

Strategy

Market research firm Telecom Trends International is forecasting that Linux based smartphones will account for 60 percent of the smartphone market in seven years with Android becoming the dominant mobile OS at 25 percent market share.

Operating systems embracing the Linux platform include Android, Symbian, WebOS and LiMo, according to Telecom Trends, and this multiplicity of platforms is bringing down costs and enhancing the features that Linux phones offer, it says.

According to Naqi Jaffery, author of Telecom Trends' report 'Smartphone Smarts and the Linux Starts', "With several operating systems converging on the Linux platform, it will muster the critical mass needed to succeed. Among Linux-based operating systems, Android will witness the most rapid growth. By 2016, Google will have captured over 25 percent of the smartphone market, putting it well ahead of competition."

Jaffery said that despite a slow start, Android is already making waves in the marketplace. "It is generating groundswell of support from manufacturers and developers that will give its growth the necessary boost."

With Linux becoming the mainstream platform, the report sees the major non-Linux platforms – Windows Mobile, BlackBerry, and iPhone – focusing on particular niches. "Each of these platforms comes with significant strengths, but they have reached their peak in terms of growth. It is unlikely that these platforms will be able to stem Linux's unrelenting push."

Telecom Trends forecasts annual global smartphone sales to exceed one billion in 2016, up from 200 million in 2009.

In August another research firm, Canalys said that Microsoft's share of the smartphone market was less than 10 percent and falling. It put Android at only three percent, driven mainly through HTC, but added that "With many other vendors, including Samsung, joining the fray, volumes are expected to increase substantially. The free licence model, tight integration with Google applications and the potential for a high degree of vendor and operator customisation are all benefits attracting industry participants."

This article first appeared in ExchangeDaily, iTWire's daily newsletter for telecommunications professionals. Register here for your free trial.