Ovum asks if Australia really needs an NBN?

Alex Zaharov-Reutt
Tuesday, 18 November 2008 10:31

IT Industry - Strategy

Ovum then shares Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) stats showing that as of June 2008, 45% of broadband connections were at speeds lower than 1.5Mbps.

Furthermore, the “average download amount across all broadband connections in Australia is 3.4GB per month”, although a “small proportion of high-usage connections inflates this figure” with at least one ISP stating those more than 50% of its users download less than 1GB per month.

This is easy to believe, because those using the Internet for email, web surfing, basic web 2.0 uses (Facebook, online docs, light YouTube use) would be hard pressed to download more than 1GB of data in a month.

The only thing that could really add to those users’ download averages is heavier use of YouTube, more use of other streaming video services, large operating system and Internet security updates or the discovery of illegal downloads of movies, TV shows and music.

So, if users that download less than 1GB a month continue to do so, then Ovum rightly says HSPA 3.5G wireless broadband would more than happily suffice at “competitive or lower-price points”.

And for those wanting more downloads, offers such as 3 Mobile’s 7GB for $49 per month, or even the more expensive 10GB plan from Telstra for $129 per month (but with anywhere, anytime, no roaming charges use) is still very attractive to many people who also wish to “cut the cord” and save up to $30 per month in line rental fees, ploughing that into wireless broadband spends instead.

Ovum doesn’t make any mention of these higher, more expensive plans, focusing instead on dial-up users paying similar pricing for much faster speeds, while also pointing to any savings “presumably [becoming increasingly important if macroeconomic conditions continue to negatively affect the Australian economy”.

Ovum however notes the “barriers to users disconnecting a fixed line” which includes the desire to keep “a long-standing fixed phone number” and suggests that a solution for an “ideal HSPA broadband service would therefore include the ability to offer VoIP and number portability” which would “make the technology even more disruptive.”

Continued on page 3.