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The world’s going mobile in a big way, moving sharply away from desktops and PCs to smartphones and tablets, with shipments in the fourth quarter of 2010 exceeding desktop and PC shipments, and last year an estimated 480 million smartphones and tablets shipped, compared to 380 million desktops and PCs. 

As the market shifts, however, Research in Motion (RIM) is faring poorly, heavily hit in the mobile market by competitors, prompting a warning from analyst and research firm, Frost & Sullivan, that RIM might not survive as the company it is today.

According to the latest market report from Frost & Sullivan, as the mobility trend heats up, the mobile tech giants battle it out to try and gain more market share in the industry, with mobile platforms hitting critical mass across smartphones and tablets.

For Research in Motion (RIM), Frost & Sullivan says the rollout of the BB10 comes too little, too late in the day for the company, and that the delay of devices will hurt it further, with suggestions that Rim may not survive in its current form for much longer.

Frost & Sullivan’s Pranabesh Nath, Research Manager, Enterprise Communications  &  Contact  Centres, Asia  Pacific – who co-authored the report with Abhishek  Chauhan, Senior Consultant, ICT Practice, South Asia & Middle East – says RIM has been battered by hyper  competition  from  Google,  Apple  and  Microsoft,  as  well as some “questionable  competitive decisions it has made over the last few years.”

“At this rate, RIM may not survive intact as a company for very long. Some hard decisions have to be taken very soon. The dismal quarterly performance from RIM is only expected to worsen,” Pranabesh Nath warns.

RIM, according to Nath, needs three basic things to turn the company around:

•    Completely  revamped  mobile devices - both hardware and OS that can trump the competition

•    Developer  and partner support (which has been waning as of late) to develop new and exciting applications for BB10; and

•    Customer confidence and interest - which has also waned considerably after RIM consistently failed to keep up with superior products from   the competition.

But, as Nath also points out: “These are big things to ask for and are very difficult to accomplish at present; the odds are stacked against the company, going by past history of how big tech companies can sink quickly.”

According to Frost & Sullivan, in the beginning RIM has relied much on its business model of secure messaging and voice services as well as its “iconic keyboard centric design.”

“In the latter stages, it failed to innovate quickly enough when it became obvious the trend was clearly towards touch devices and large app stores.

“In the end, only a few developers still support the RIM platform because there are very few users in the RIM ecosystem (as compared to Apple or Google) as those few users directly affect how lucrative the market is for paid apps by the developers,” Nath says.

It’s a different story for Google tablet Nexus 7, observes Frost & Sullivan, with “positive news for the industry and for consumers, with Google Nexus 7 bringing another major player to the low-end tablet market ($150 - $200) after Amazon with its Kindle Fire.  

According to Nath, this will increase awareness and provide direction for other android manufacturers to follow – “similar to how Google has done with launching cutting edge mobile devices with every iteration of its android OS.”

Nath says this may even push companies such as Apple to launch a smaller iPad - something the company has not done yet – “since the demand is clearly there.”

But Nath also says that Google's track record with hardware is untested, and it remains to be seen if Google will enter into direct competition with its hardware partners or “find a way to keep them happy.”

On the on-going patent legal battle between Samsung and Apple, Frost & Sullivan says that with the Samsung Galaxy Nexus banned in the US, consumers are losing out as it hampers competition and innovation.

“The patent wars between Apple and Samsung  have  gone  on  for  a  while  now  and  have  assumed  ridiculous proportions. For Apple this is a fight for survival and profitability since Samsung  is  quite  capable  of  flooding the worldwide market with quality alternatives  to  the  iPad,  that  too at varying price points – something Apple  has  yet  to do.

“Samsung has already done this quite successfully if you take a look at the sales of their Galaxy SII smartphone and Galaxy tablet devices,” Nath says, adding that this is expected to continue for some time if there is no intervention from government or regulatory authorities.

“What this brings into question is the legality of seemingly generic patents that have been filed by all manufacturers over the years, and not just Apple, something that does not look like it will get settled soon.”

Frost & Sullivan also looked at the  launch  of  Apple’s  own  Map  services, which, as it says has resulted in Google Maps no longer being supported in the advanced iOS devices – and which Nath cautions “poses a huge risk to Google’s  primary  business-advertisements.”

Nath observes that today’s focus  is  on providing  location  based information and localised information to the end users  regarding the various points of interest – “Maps and Siri together can take off a significant portion of the mobile advertisement revenues from Google’s coffers.”

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Peter Dinham

 

Peter Dinham is a co-founder of iTWire and a 35-year veteran journalist and corporate communications consultant. He has worked as a journalist in all forms of media – newspapers/magazines, radio, television, press agency and now, online – including with the Canberra Times, The Examiner (Tasmania), the ABC and AAP-Reuters. As a freelance journalist he also had articles published in Australian and overseas magazines. He worked in the corporate communications/public relations sector, in-house with an airline, and as a senior executive in Australia of the world’s largest communications consultancy, Burson-Marsteller. He also ran his own communications consultancy and was a co-founder in Australia of the global photographic agency, the Image Bank (now Getty Images).

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