Recession to hit phones and tablets, Windows 8 Nokia revival: predictions 2012

Peter Dinham
Tuesday, 13 December 2011 15:42

IT Industry - Market

The ill winds of global recessionary times - or at the least a prolonged downturn in the global economy - are threatening the thriving smart device market with its own 'recession',with one prediction that the effects could be most acutely felt in the premium tablet sector, with net device sales likely to plateau or decline.

The gloom and doom prediction comes from Juniper research in a report on likely ICT market trends that predicts that 2012 may see a smart devices recession. Meanwhile troubled Nokia will experience a Windows 8 OS fuelled revival, with the new operating system disrupting the tablet market, according to Juniper.

The research firm also suggests that prospects of a double-dip recession, and a prolonged downturn across western markets, could have a serious negative impact on sales of dedicated eReaders, essentially 'nice-to-have' rather than 'must-have' devices, as discretionary spend falls.

On smartphone and tablet sales, Juniper says that recessionary conditions will have an adverse impact on sales of these devices, particularly in the case of 'unsubsidised' devices.

Juniper's view is that, given the extent to which smartphones have already become a near 'must-have' device, the impact will be less significant than for tablets, where it may well reduce the extent to which these devices penetrate the wider market, notably across Western Europe.

However, Juniper stresses that the effect will be most acutely felt in the premium tablet sector, where net device sales could plateau or even decline.

Conversely, Juniper does say that the reduction in average purchasing power could conceivably benefit players such as Amazon and ARCHOS, inasmuch as cash-strapped consumers may opt for the lower-priced Kindle Fire or an ARNOVA-branded device rather than the iPad.

On the global economy itself, Juniper describes the economic situation as 'precarious', primarily because of the combination of several interrelated prevailing conditions - high levels of government debt, low interest rates, high and rising unemployment, reduced average consumer purchasing power - which it says have generated an environment which threatens at best a 'prolonged period of low to zero growth or - more likely - a double-dip recession across Western markets.'

On the market for telecoms, Juniper says the telcos - and mobile in particular - will not be immune to the effects of the crisis, but, in some good news for the sector, the research firm says it believes that the industry in general is relatively robust and will be far less susceptible to those effects than most other verticals.

Juniper also strikes a positive note on the predicted effects of the London 2012 Olympics on advertising on through mobile delivery channels.

According to Juniper, the London Olympics will provide a substantial boost to advertising across various mobile delivery channels, with brands keen to employ location-based advertising and marketing to drive sales.

There's also a prediction that we are also likely to see far more widespread usage of augmented reality within mobile marketing, using both image recognition and markerless tracking techniques.

And, in another area expected to 'drive mobile commerce', Juniper says that there is significant evidence to suggest that as economic conditions worsen, then consumer uptake of coupon-based discounts becomes more extensive. The firm believes that the austere financial climate will act as a further stimulant to this trend, with the mobile couponing market - already accelerating as part of a more wholesale usage of m-commerce - a key beneficiary.

With its prediction that Windows 8 OS will fuel a Nokia revival, disrupting the tablet market, Juniper makes the point that Microsoft's next OS will be compatible with both Intel and ARM architechtures, meaning it will run on both PC and mobile devices.

Juniper says that this will create a huge ecosystem of devices - from smartphones, to tablets,
notebooks and desktops - for app developers to target, and we should expect to see Microsoft to gain market share in the tablet space, as it replaces the non-tablet-optimised Windows 7.

And, with Nokia transitioning its existing smartphone and new products - likely to include a tablet - to Microsoft's platform, Juniper says the Finnish giant will be fighting back after spending several years losing market share to Android and iOS devices.

Here's some of the other top 10 predictions for 2012 from Juniper:

'¢    The Year of Quad-Core Processor

While 2011 was the year of the dual-core device, in 2012, the top-end devices will come with quad-core processors. Asus were the first off the blocks, having releasing their Eee Pad Transformer Prime with the newly launched NVIDIA Tegra 3 chip in November 2011. Qualcomm have also added a quad-core chip to their Snapdragon line.

Quad-core processors, while offering an improvement in performance, also offer an increase in battery life. The performance boost comes from being able to multi-task more efficiently - the processor can handle multiple threads at once, making sure that music keeps playing smoothly while the user is playing games or taking pictures. The power savings come from being able to keep those cores at a relatively low clock speed.

There are a number of services that will benefit from this increase in power, the biggest of which is the games industry. Quad-core processors will allow developers to add more realistic effects, getting ever closer to the elusive console-quality experience. The Tegra 3 even allows for controller support and mirroring to a 3D TV. Javascript and Flash will also run faster allowing web developers to create more graphics and script heavy apps and pages.

'¢    High Profile Malware Attacks on Mobile devices

While there have been numerous malware attacks targeted at mobile devices, these attacks have been - in comparison with those targeting desktop PCs and laptops - relatively small scale.

Given the increasing prevalence of consumer smartphones and tablets - and the opportunity they present to cyber-criminals - this state of affairs is unlikely to continue. We would anticipate that 2012 will see several high-profile, international attacks on various mobile OSs, with the result that consumers at large are made aware of the pressing need to protect their smart devices through the installation of security software.

'¢    MEMs Accelerometers and Gyroscopes to Transform Sensor market for Mobile devices

MEMS (Microelectronic Electromechanical Systems) such as accelerometers and gyroscopes are
increasingly becoming must-have features within smartphones and tablets. Not only are they cost effective to deploy, but their integrated processing capability enables a dramatic improvement in on-device location awareness.
Juniper Research believes that this in turn will see a dramatic increase in LBS applications - initially, primarily in the consumer space - as service providers seek to take advantage of this improved functionality.

Throughout 2012, expect to see significant utilisation of these technologies to support advertising and marketing campaigns; also watch out for large-scale deployment in developed Asia's gaming
sector.

'¢    Social gaming to become a major Mobile play with Introduction of Synchronous Gaming

2012 is set to see an explosion in the number of social games played on mobile. Users have already been primed for social games, with games such as FarmVille and The Sims Social being played by millions of people every day via PC.

The launch of the Facebook Platform for Mobile means developers can easily distribute their app on mobile without the need for native apps and use Facebook APIs to add in sharing and payment functionality. Making social games cross platform will enable their popularity to spread to mobile.

Social games are inherently multiplayer but typically asynchronous - users receive notifications when it is their turn to play. Adding the ability to interact with friend in real time, as enabled in iOS 5, will be a significant draw for users looking for new social experiences.

'¢    Online, Mobile and Physical will begin to fuse into one Retail market

As the number of consumers using smartphones as an integral part of their shopping increases, so too we expect to see retailers exploiting this trend in developing mobile storefronts as a bridge between their online and physical presence, creating a seamless shopping experience to attract and retain customers.

Online retailers are already beginning to experiment with physical store trials where goods can be
ordered via QR codes on product samples or images - these we expect to mature into permanent
presence in high-throughput commuting locations. Conversely we expect smaller 'bricks-and-mortar' retailers in particular to extend their reach using the mobile channel, delivering personalised mobile coupons to drive footfall into their stores and recapturing customers lost during the online retail revolution.

'¢    Cloud mobility to drive collaborative communications

The dramatic upsurge in consumer smartphone and tablet adoption has in turn seen many such devices brought into play within the enterprise space, and we would envisage that the next year will see a far greater utilisation of such devices - in tandem with dedicated corporate smartphones/tablets - to promote and accelerate collaborative communications within the workforce.

Specifically, we believe that 2012 will see a substantial increase in the number of enterprises moving to develop and deploy mobile-centric, social business strategies.