ITWire

Ovum says the result is evidence that the telecoms industry finally succumbed to the impact of the global economic downturn. However it adds that the mobile sector is now growing strongly, "sufficient to overcome the steady decline in fixed line services."

That was sufficient to boost total service provider revenues by six percent in 2010 and sufficient for Ovum to forecast a five percent compound annual growth rate through to 2014."

Australia, which weathered the GFC better than most, fared better in 2009 but is forecast to lag the global trend going forwards.

According to Ovum senior analyst, Nicole McCormick, total revenue in Australia increased by 3.64 percent in 2009. Fixed line voice revenue fell 5.4 percent, while mobile voice and mobile data revenue grew 1.1 percent and 26.8 percent respectively.

However McCormick says total revenues, as reported by service providers, will grow by only 1.7 percent in 2010 in Australia and Ovum predicts that mobile voice revenues will decline for the first time in 2010. It is forecasting Australian telecoms revenues to grow by only six percent between 2008 and 2014.

That's a sharp contrast to much of the world. "Globally, mobile is keeping telecoms buzzing," John Lively, chief forecaster at Ovum, said. "In 2010, China and India alone will add 329 million new mobile phone connections, equivalent to more than the combined total population of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK."

Ovum is forecasting mobile phone connections to increase from 5.3 billion in 2010 to 7.1 billion in 2014, with the emerging markets of Asia and Africa contributing much of the growth, and revenues from mobile phone services to increase by nearly $US100 billion in the three years to 2012.

The data comes from Ovum's Global Telecoms Analyser. It forecasts that fixed line services will continue to decline and that fibre connections for broadband services will increasingly be important for telcos.

"Overall, the number of fixed lines worldwide will fall from one billion in 2010, to 871 million by 2014. Fixed line services revenues will also fall from around $US350 billion to $US283 billion, for the same period," Ovum says.

"While fixed voice lines and revenues will continue declining due to mobile substitution, fixed revenues overall will benefit from the growth in broadband services (internet access, video, and VoIP), enabled by continued deployment of fibre-to-the-premises networks."

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