PC market recovering, notebooks key growth driver

Gordon Peters
Wednesday, 16 June 2010 22:48

IT Industry - Market

The current worldwide outlook for sales of PCs look bright, with an exceptional fourth quarter last year followed by year-on-year growth in shipments of 27.1 percent in the first quarter of this year, and forecasts by IDC of further recovery in the market after the global economic downturn.

According to IDC, the 'measured, albeit sometimes bumpy economic recovery, coupled with strong buying across both commercial and consumer segments quashed earlier fears of consumer fatigue and led to a renewed projection for strong 2010 growth of 19.8%.'

Jay Chou, research analyst with IDC, says that, unlike most of 2009, the recent market recovery has also seen a small rebound in higher priced SKUs as Mininotebook PCs (also known as netbooks) became less of a driver of volume.

'Although low to mid-range portable PCs still dominate the market, desktop PCs also recovered with its first yearly growth since the second quarter of 2008. Commercial desktops posted positive growth, a first since the downturn, while the popularity of all-in-one PCs was a major factor in driving consumer desktop growth. Growth was positive across both mature and emerging markets but emerging regions saw a record high 37% year-over-year growth in the first quarter. The strong surge in volume brought a corresponding slowing of price declines over the past year. A combination of improved commercial activity and a renewed interest in mainstream notebooks led to a moderation of ASP decline rates.'

According to Chou, going forward he expects PC market revenue in 2010 to surpass that of the previous revenue peak set in 2008 as more purchases shift to higher margin SKUs, and he says 'mininotebook PC volume growth is expected to moderate, and its share as a percent of the total PC market is expected to stay under 12%.

'Desktop PC volume should grow over 8% in 2010 thanks in part to favourable comparisons to a dismal 2009 but also due to business replacements and the popularity of All-in-One PCs.'

IDC predicts that the main driver of growth will come from mainstream notebooks, and Chou says that emerging regions are still expected to anchor much of the growth ahead, growing 26.6% in 2010 on the strength of strong portable PC sales. 'Mature markets should see 2010 come in at 13.6%, with desktops rebounding slightly in 2010 over 2009. Portable PCs will remain the driver of growth across consumer and commercial segments, reaching nearly a 70% share of PCs by 2012.

"Beyond continuing with the market recovery, 2010 will be a year filled with new formulations on what constitutes the PC experience. New devices such as e-readers and media tablets will pose disruptive challenges to conventional usage models while opening up intriguing possibilities in consumer and mobile business spaces. Aside from brute computing power, the value proposition of the PC will be increasingly measured by the flexibility with which it can meet the demands of content creation and content consumption as well as achieving optimal portability."