Peter Dinham
Monday, 31 August 2009 15:40
IT Industry -
Market
Page 2 of 3
“On the present supercomputer, only a few decades can be
simulated, but the new computer will enable complex simulations that
describe hundreds of years of New Zealand's climate. The new models can
account for the effects that land, ocean and atmospheric interactions,
and human activities, will have on our future climate.”
Moxon said hazards forecasting models that took
80 minutes to complete on 40 percent of the previous supercomputer will
now take eight minutes on about four percent of the new system,
allowing more complex and comprehensive forecasting models to be
developed.
“These capabilities will have a significant impact. For example,
flooding remains New Zealand’s most costly year-on-year physical
hazard. Claims from damage caused by weather events in July and August
last year are estimated at $68 million, according to the Insurance
Council of New Zealand, and the 2004 Central North Island floods alone
resulted in insurance claims of more than $400 million.”
According to NIWA’s John Morgan, given the high costs associated with
flood damage, the ability to improve flood forecast lead times is
expected to deliver significant economic benefit to New Zealand.
Morgan says the United Kingdom Met Office estimated the benefit to cost
ratio of their similar supercomputer was nine times that of the total
cost of ownership, based solely on its capability to improve flood
forecast lead times.
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