Has the Aussie iPhone missed the boat?

Adam Turner
Friday, 23 May 2008 19:33

IT Industry - Market

Now let's do some simple maths. Australia has roughly 20 million people and roughly 20 million active mobile phone services. Yes, I know this sounds crazy but it's true - I attribute it to corporate mobile phones and mobile data devices that are allocated mobile phone numbers. Anyway, Apple is aiming for a modest 1 per cent of the mobile phone market, which translates to roughly 200,000 sales in Australia (less once you allow for the corporate phones and mobile data devices in the 20 million figure). If the estimate of 60,000 bootleg iPhones in Australia is on the money, then well over a third of Australia's potential iPhone sales have already been snapped up.

Of course it's not this simple. The fanaticism of Apple users will work both for and against Apple. For starters, many Australians who imported and hacked a 2.5G iPhone will probably upgrade to a 3G Australian iPhone and hand-me-down their old iPhone to a friend. Then again, they might flog the old iPhone on eBay and the flood of cheap, pre-hacked 2.5G iPhones could still put a serious dint in local sales. If even a tenth of those 60,000 iPhones hit the second hand market at the same time, it's quite feasible you could pick up a second-hand 2G iPhone for half the price of the official Australian 3G iPhone.

Every iPhone sale puts money in Apple's pocket, so maybe Cupertino doesn't care where you source your iPhone from. If you're an Apple reseller on the other hand, it's a very different story - but they're used to getting the short end of the stick from Apple by now.

Will the iPhone be a hit in Australia and other new markets? Without doubt. Will the sea of bootleg iPhones put a dint in sales? Absolutely. The size of that dint will determine whether or not Apple rejigs its global release schedule in future.