NBN FTTH connections will surpass ADSL by 2015, says Telsyte

Stuart Corner
Friday, 07 October 2011 10:06

IT Industry - Development

Research firm Telsyte estimates that NBN FTTH connections will exceed ADSL in 2015 with about three million connections and reach 4.2m homes by 2017.

However if the Coalition wins power in 2013 it expects the number of FTTH connections to only about 700,000 by 2017.

The predictions come from Telsyte's annual report on the Australian fixed broadband and voice market, in which Telsyte says it "considered the current political environment and the Coalition's opposition to NBN Co to produce technology forecasts based on the outcome of the next Federal election."

Chris Coughlan, Telsyte's director of research consulting and author of the report, said: "If the Coalition wins power in 2013, we expect the new government will stall the NBN while it goes through the Productivity Commission and policy reviews for the initial term of government. If this happens the market will swing back to DSL and optical fibre will only be connected to around 700,000 premises by the end of 2017."

Telsyte says the fixed broadband market growth has slowed to 3.8 percent, from over 20 percent in 2007, resulting in increased industry rivalry as participants move to capture subscribers from each other. It notes: "This trend is further exacerbated by the rollout of the NBN, as there will be an advantage to incumbency when it comes time for customers to move to the new network."

Meanwhile, according to Coughlan, "It is becoming increasingly difficult for wholesale-based DSL providers to compete against Telstra retail and the larger ULLS operators, like iiNet and TPG. We believe subscriber numbers in this segment of the market has contracted by 8.2 percent in the last year."