Global DSL market to remain vibrant

James Riley
Thursday, 30 September 2010 20:28

IT Industry - Development

Despite steady growth in worldwide sales in the fibre to the home market, research group Ovum says DSL technology remains a slightly larger and vital global battleground for major broadband access vendors.

Over the past two years, even as FTTH subscribers and associated equipment revenues have grown steadily worldwide, DSL revenues have been slightly higher each quarter.

In the second quarter this year, global DSL revenues are estimated at $848 million - not including customer premises equipment - compared to FTTH revenues of $796 million, even when customer premises equipment is included, Ovum said.

Ovum analyst Kamalini Ganguly said the DSL equipment market was unlikely to "wither away any time soon."

"While it is certainly true that DSL subscriber growth is slowing in many countries and that DSL subscribers, in places like Japan and Korea, are being replaced by FTTH subscribers, DSL equipment will still be used in many hybrid fiber-copper architectures," Ganguly said.

"In fact, Ovum forecasts that even in 2015, 63 million DSL ports will be shipped globally - down from 82 million ports in 2009. However, the great majority of these, if not all, will be in conjunction with growth in FTTx subscribers, not DSL," he said.

Equipment vendors continued to innovate with the copper-wire based technology, particularly around innovations that target cross-talk in multiple pairs.

However, Ovum says that ultimately fibre will become the prevailing technology of broadband and with equipment revenues overtaking DSL in 2012.

"Few in the industry doubt that fibre, with its lower operating expense burden compared to copper and far higher natural bandwidth capacity, will eventually prevail," Ganguly said.

"But in many countries, completion of FTTH may take up to a few decades. In the meantime, DSL continues to evolve as a viable alternative as part of different architectures," he said.

"This is particularly relevant for those countries where carriers facing competition plan to launch new services like IPTV, but cannot find the economic justification or the capital to roll out FTTH just yet."