Researchers tip PS3 to beat Xbox 360

Stuart Corner
Sunday, 19 November 2006 12:56

IT Industry - Deals

Two separate market research organisations are predicting success for Sony's PS3, despite the one year lead of the Xbox 360.

A survey by ABI Research found that Sony PlayStation owners showed greatest brand loyalty when considering purchasing a next-generation gaming machine. Strategy Analytics says the PS3 will be catch up with the Xbox 360 by the end of 2007  and is set to become the dominant platform of the next generation.

ABI Research surveyed 1725 consumers about their interest in buying a new game console. The research showed 60 percent of those who own a PS2 and are considering a new console likely to buy a PS3, which exceeded the 45 percent of Xbox owners looking to buy an Xbox 360 and 46 percent of GameCube owners looking to buy a Wii.

"We believe that Sony's much larger installed base combined with higher loyalty among current generation owners could translate into significant gains for them if they can, in fact, convert these prospective owners," said research director Michael Wolf. "Microsoft and Nintendo, while still seeing strong overall loyalty, do not enjoy the same intensity.

Eighteen percent of those surveyed said they were likely to buy new game platform in the coming year, compared with 28 percent of active gamers. However, 42 percent of PlayStation 2 owners, 55 percent of Xbox owners and 54 percent of GameCube owners indicating they were likely to buy a new console.

"Not surprisingly, the interest in the new generation of consoles grows significantly among the already converted," said Wolf. "While we think that the market of console owners will likely expand beyond its current bases, we believe that the market for the next one to two years will be driven by current console owners upgrading to the new generation."

Meanwhile, Strategy Analytics says that Microsoft's Xbox 360 is facing even greater pressure to produce a strong holiday season. To meet its target, Microsoft must sell four million consoles over the gift-buying season, Strategy Analytics says.

"Sony will sell everything it can make of its new system" said David Mercer, principal analyst. "But Microsoft has already had a year in the market to cream off early adopters, so the next few weeks will demonstrate how much pent-up demand there really is for the Xbox 360, and how many disappointed PS3 buyers are willing to switch camps."

Strategy Analytics predicts global sales of nearly nine million next-generation games consoles during the last quarter of 2006. "The Xbox 360 will remain the leading system through most of 2007 but the PS3 will be catching up by the end of the year and is still set to become the dominant platform of the next generation," it says.

The company predicts that more than 120 million PS3s will be sold through 2012, compared to 60 million Xbox 360s and 23 million Nintendo Wiis. North America will account for more than 50 percent of all console sales over this period.