Cornered! is a blog devoted, most of the time anyway, to telecommunications: local and global issues, technology, people and trends from the perspective of someone who's been reporting, analysing and commenting on the industry since the dark ages (BC - before competition). Sometimes serious, sometimes flippant, sometimes frivolous. Controversial, analytical, informative, amusing, but never boring; a vehicle for examinations of important issues and observations on my encounters and experiences in an industry where polarised views and hyperbole are the norm.
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Cornered! Rudd's FTTP NBN, a rerun of the FTTN version?
Cornered! Rudd's FTTP NBN, a rerun of the FTTN version? | Rudd's FTTP NBN, a rerun of the FTTN version? |
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| by Stuart Corner | |
| Wednesday, 15 April 2009 | |
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Page 3 of 3 Fast forward now as commentators dissect the $43b NBN Plan B. Here's Alan Kohler: "...Rather than go to back to minister Stephen Conroy empty handed [the Expert Panel] devised, with the help of Graeme Samuel at the ACCC, a cunning plan: Telstra can end up owning the new fibre network and keep its monopoly, with the government even helping to fund it and take care of all the planning issues, as long as Telstra splits into two separate companies."Featured Whitepaper
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Plan B is much more ambitious than Plan A, the financial stakes are much higher, and for Telstra the conditions are much tougher: full structural separation as opposed to simply agreeing to access regulation for the new network. But most importantly, for the Government, the rest of the industry and for all Australia, the consequences of failure will be much greater. In Kohler's view the consequences for Telstra will be dire and such a outcome "unthinkable". "If the Telstra board says no...the government will create a new, faster, Telstra that will eat the old Telstra...[and]...Telstra directors...are already flirting with class actions over their abject and expensive failure to sensibly deal with Australia's political and regulatory reality; if they fail again, they risk being personally bankrupted by class actions and/or thrown into prison for breaching their directors duties." One view is that Plan A, despite claims by the other bidders and global financial crisis notwithstanding, was only ever going to be viable with Conroy's dream outcome of Telstra building the network and that the collapse of the NBN process was the inevitable consequence of Telstra's non-participation. Plan B appears to have as little detailed planning behind it as Plan A, a perception reinforced by Conroy's refusal to release the Expert Panel's report. So, if the "unthinkable" were to happen and Telstra did not come to the party, agree to a break up and agree to build the network, it could be that in 12 months time will Australia will be no nearer the next generation of broadband than we were in 2006, and quite likely even further away, except for those lucky enough to be on Telstra's upgraded HFC network or able to afford the, by then, 42MBps available on Next G. If the real aim of the latest version of the NBN plan is to have Telstra build it we can only hope that the alternative of Telstra not being part of it has been thought through, is realistic and achievable. Just in case the unthinkable happens. |
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