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Science U.S. scientists test early warning system for earthquakes
Science U.S. scientists test early warning system for earthquakes | U.S. scientists test early warning system for earthquakes |
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| by William Atkins | |
| Friday, 11 July 2008 | |
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Page 3 of 3 The researchers were able to predict one small (naturally produced) tremor by two hours and a second one by ten hours. Featured Whitepaper
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Science DiscussionsSilver explains, "What we're looking for are changes in the velocity that would correspond to changes in stress, and it has been hypothesised that such stress changes would precede seismic events and could be used as precursors. For a long time, people have been trying to do this. I think right now the technology has gotten better so we can measure this change more accurately." [United Press International: “Pre-quake seismic wave changes discovered”] Silver stated, "If you had 10 hours' warning, from a practical point of view, you could evacuate populations, you could certainly get people out of buildings, you could get the fire department ready. Hurricane (warnings) give you an idea of what could be done." [United Press International] Although scientists are unable to routinely predict earthquakes, this new advancement provides the technological ability to someday forecast their occurrence similarly to hurricanes, as Silver suggests. The article, which is based on the research for this early warning sysem, is entitled “Preseismic velocity changes observed from active source monitoring at the Parkfield SAFOD drill site.” It is found in the July 10, 2008 issue of the journal Nature (Nature 454, 204-208 (10 July 2008). The researchers are now testing the system in China and Japan to see if it is equally able to sense a “preseismic signal” at other locations. Niu states, “We're working with colleagues in China and Japan on follow-up studies to determine whether this physical response can be measured in other seismically active regions. Provided the effect is pervasive, we still need to learn more about the timing of the signals if we are to reliably use them to warn of impending quakes." [Science Daily] With hundreds, or even thousands, of people killed and injured in a major earthquake, this new technology could someday save millions of lives as it routinely predicts the beginning of earthquakes so people can seek safety and emergency squads can be dispersed to handle upcoming dangerous situations. Meteorologists on TV weather programs may, one day, include such forecasts in their weather predictions. |
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