With growing numbers of people to opting to carry multiple handsets and strong demand for wireless data services, subscriber numbers are forecast to continue to rise, albeit at a gradually slowing rate.

However the real action for mobile operators and handset makers is in emerging markets such as India and China which are tipped to become the two largest for mobile services by 2012. Ovum’s forecast puts China’s mobile penetration at 64 per cent and India’s at 55 per cent within four years.

Worldwide, total mobile connections are slated to reach 4.99 billion during the same period with total annual revenues climbing to $US1,019 billion.

Ovum senior analyst Steven Hartley says it will be the emerging markets that provide the “engine of connection growth” for mobile operators with China and India representing more than 30 per cent of all connections by 2012.

Yet, while such growth will put smiles on the faces of senior management at large mobile operators, this joy will be tempered by forecasts of the expected ARPU (average revenue per user) rates in emerging markets. According to Ovum, even though India and China will represent more than 30 per cent of all connections, the two countries will only be generating 18 per cent of global mobile revenues.

Hartley says this will put growing pressure on mobile operators to improve their efficiency so that they get a solid financial return on the large investments required to build and maintain networks in these countries.