Technology news and Jobs arrow Our Blogs arrow The BeerFiles arrow What iPhone needs to meet Apple's 2008 target, ask Wozniak
What iPhone needs to meet Apple's 2008 target, ask Wozniak E-mail
by Stan Beer   
Thursday, 31 January 2008
The coming 11 months will see Apple's landmark smartphone product the iPhone enter new markets around the world and probably with a new generation of the product. Apple will be trying its heart out to meet its stated objective of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008 to capture 1% of the global market. Most analysts agree that in order to do that iPhone 2.0 will need features not present in the current model, so what are they? Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has already provided most of the answers.

Before we go any further, let's state up front what 10 million iPhones sold by the end of 2008 means because there appears to be a lot of disagreement among analysts and Apple fans.

At Macworld 2007, Steve Jobs stated that the global market was 1 billion cellphones a year and that Apple wanted to get 1% of it by the end of 2008 and sell 10 million iPhones. By any reasonable definition, that means Apple has to sell 10 million iPhones in this calendar year - not from June 29 2007 until December 31 2008. Actually, 10 million iPhones sold this year would be somewhat less than 1% anyway because the cellphone market is now estimated to be 1.25 billion in 2008.

Analysts generally agree that Apple has made a very impressive start to its iPhone sales campaign. One analyst, Mike Abramsky at RBC Capital has pointed out that the iPhone sold double the amount of the popular Motorola Razr in the first six months after its launch. However, the next 12 months are what really count and analysts are less certain as to whether Apple can maintain its initial momentum.

The fact that Apple dropped the price of the 8GB iPhone by a whopping $200 and scrapped the 4GB model within three months of its release caused enormous concern amongst both fans and market analysts. Most analysts took it as a sign that sales were slower than Apple would have liked. More recently concerns have been expressed about the discrepancy between iPhone signups to carriers and the actual number of handsets shipped, suggesting a build-up of retail inventory, a grey market of unlocked phones or combination of both.

Despite all these concerns, the general feeling among analysts is that Apple will be able to get over the 10 million iPhones in 2008 line through the combination of entering new markets and the release of the next generation model.

Steve Jobs himself said at Macworld 2007 that a 3G model was planned and clearly this will be necessary for markets like Europe and Asia where 3G is widely used. However, four months ago during an interview with ITnews Steve Wozniak revealed among others, one glaring deficiency that needs to be addressed in the next model iPhone.



 
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