Mike Lockwood, at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Chilton, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, and Claus Fröhlich, at the World Radiation Center in Davos Dorf, Switzerland, used satellite measurements of solar activity to show the factors that affect climate change on Earth such as sunspots, cosmic rays, intensity of Earth’s magnetic field, and solar irradiance. The data clearly shows that between the years 1985 and 1987, these factors reversed themselves—implying less likelihood of contributing to global warming from pre-1985 years.

They state in their abstract, “There is considerable evidence for solar influence on the Earth's pre-industrial climate and the Sun may well have been a factor in post-industrial climate change in the first half of the last century. Here we show that over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth's climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.”

For instance, from their satellite data, sunspot activity peaked in 1985 and has been dropping ever since. Sunspot activity is an indicator of changing energy output from the Sun.

In addition, cosmic rays were found to have reached a minimum in 1985 and have been increasing since then (according to measurements taken by satellites in space). Cosmic rays are not necessarily generated just from the Sun but are found coming from all over the universe. They have been, however, suggested as a possible cause for increased cloud cover around the Earth that would result in a cooling condition for the planet. However, the Lockwood-Fröhlich results disputes this claim.

The magnetic field of the Earth was also found to reach a maximum around 1987. The Earth’s magnetic field protects the Earth from cosmic rays. The magnetic field has been decreasing in intensity since its peak in 1987. With more cosmic rays allowed into the atmosphere since 1987 (due to decreasing magnetic field intensity), as stated earlier, increased cloud cover would result, which should result in cooler, not warmer, conditions on the Earth.

The Sun’s brightness (or irradiance, which is a direct indicator of the amount of energy coming from the Sun to the Earth) increased between 1977 and 1985, but has been decreasing since 1985. Less irradiance, or brightness, makes less heat energy coming to the Earth. Such a scenario would indicate a cooler Earth, not a warmer one.

Lockwood and Fröhlich state that, according to their data, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded an incorrect percentage of solar influence on the Earth’s climate. The Panel concluded that the Sun had an approximate 10% influence on the global warming effect felt on the Earth. Lockwood and Fröhlich conclude that the Sun’s role in global warming is “negligible”.

Their results, under the title “Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature”, appear online on June 10, 2007 by the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society (http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/h844264320314105/).

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