Scientists have been unable to accurately predict solar storms in the past. However, Posner has developed a technique that uses the COmprehensive SupraThermal and Energetic Particle (COSTEP) analyzer onboard SOHO. COSTEP is basically an instrument that counts particles, along with their energies, coming from the Sun.

Posner works at the Science Mission Directorate within NASA Headquarters (Washington, D.C.) but is on temporary assignment at the Southwest Research Institute (SRI, San Antonio, Texas). 

Solar radiation storms consist of a swarming mixture of electrons, protons, and heavier ions that are accelerated to very high speeds by explosions in the Sun. Because the lighter particles, such as electrons, travel faster in space, they arrive at the Earth before the slower moving and heavier ions.

It was common knowledge that detecting electrons from the Sun was the key to being able to detect the more dangerous ions that arrive later. However, no one was able to come up with a method to accurately do this, until Posner accomplished it.

Posner found that when he measured various physical characteristics within the first round of incoming electrons, he could accurately predict the number of ions that arrived later, and could also predict within an hour when they would arrive.

Ions—which are atoms that have lost one or more of its electrons—are especially dangerous because these energetic particles can damage human tissues and breakdown DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid)—the substance that carries genetic information within the body.

When he tested his method, Posner found that he could accurately predict for an upcoming solar storm within a timeframe of seven to 74 minutes. In fact, using his predictive solar storm matrix, Posner was able to predict the four major solar ion storms that occurred in 2003.

Currently Posner is improving on his predictive solar storm model so that the minimum time for a prediction will be greater than the current seven minutes and so that his false readings (predicting a solar storm when none is coming)  are minimized.

Posner’s method will help warn astronauts in orbit about the Earth, traveling to the Moon, Mars, or other places, working on the Moon or other body without a magnetic field (which protects living things, such as those on the Earth, from ionizing radiation), and performing other such space tasks.

With proper warning, these space travelers can seek shelter from an impending solar radiation storm. It will also help warn ground controllers to safeguard their satellites in orbit about the Earth, the Sun, or in other areas where future storms are about to hit.

SOHO is a joint effort of the ESA (European Space Agency) and NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). It was launched in December 1995 to study the Sun and began standard operations in May 1996. It is located near the Earth-Sun L-1 (Lagrangian-1) point, a point of gravitational balance between the Earth and the Sun.

The L-1 point is approximately 0.99 astronomical unit (AU) from the Sun and about 0.01 AU from the Earth. (One AU equals about 150 million kilometers (93 million miles)—the approximate distance between the Earth and the Sun.) From that position in space (which is identical to the Earth's orbital period about the Sun), the SOHO is able to constantly observe the Sun.

The home website of SOHO is: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/.

Posner’s study “Up to 1-hour forecasting of radiation hazards from solar energetic ion events with relativistic electron” appears in the May 25, 2007 issue of the journal Space Weather (volume 5, Number 5)

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