The Internet in 2025, according to Cisco

Stuart Corner
Thursday, 26 August 2010 18:55

Business IT - Technology

Cisco and the Monitor Group's Global Business Network have published "The Evolving Internet, a report that "examines the driving forces and uncertainties that will shape the Internet - and the $US3 trillion market it enables - from now through 2025."

According to Cisco, the report's findings "culminate in four illustrative scenarios, designed to help decision-makers in both technology companies and government understand, anticipate, and manage key changes, risks, and opportunities so that the Internet's potential to create economic and social value can be realized globally."

The report, Cisco says, "outlines five powerful trends already underway that provide a common foundation for any scenarios on the Internet's future. These trends relate to the global composition and governance of the Internet, generational differences, interface technology, and pricing models for connectivity."

The report's four scenarios "portray challenging and distinctive alternative stories about how the world might unfold." They are:

Fluid Frontiers: "A world in which the Internet becomes pervasive and centrifugal. Technology continues to make connectivity and devices more and more affordable (in spite of limited investment in network build-out) while global entrepreneurship - and fierce competition - ensure that the wide range of needs and demands from across the world are met quickly and from equally diverse setups and locations."

Insecure Growth: "A world in which users - individuals and business alike - are inhibited from intensive reliance on the Internet. Relentless cyber attacks driven by wide-ranging motivations defy the preventive capabilities of governments and international bodies. Secure alternatives emerge, but they are expensive."

Short Of The Promise: "A frugal world in which prolonged economic stagnation in many countries takes its toll on the spread of the Internet. Technology offers no compensating breakthroughs, and protectionist policy responses to economic weakness make matters worse - both in economic terms and with regard to network technology adoption."

Bursting At The Seams: "A world in which the Internet becomes a victim of its own success. Demand for IP-based services is boundless, but capacity constraints and occasional bottlenecks create a gap between the expectations and reality of Internet use. Meanwhile, international technology standards don't come to pass, in part because of a global backlash against decades of U.S. technology dominance."

Finally, the report proposes two frameworks that explore the business strategy and policy implications of each scenario: What business models will best establish a sustainable, profitable position around the Internet of the future? What are the policy challenges that need to be addressed, nationally and internationally?