Peter Dinham
Monday, 11 May 2009 11:30
Business IT -
Technology
Page 2 of 3
Harpur says this is expected to continue over the next
five years and predicts that by 2013, approximately 30 percent of all
broadband users will be reliant on wireless access services, and that
this is likely to dramatically reduce the potential subscriber base for
the NBN and could impact on the overall profitability of the project.
According to Harpur, competition from current
high speed offerings, such as high speed cable access and ADSL2+
broadband, which are now becoming more widely available, will also have
some impact on the potential NBN subscriber base.
“Although typical average speeds through these offerings are far lower
than the potential 100Mbps that will be available via the completed
NBN, full implementation of the NBN is many years off and the lower
speeds will be sufficient for a significant section of population over
the next five to ten years.”
Key among the anticipated advantages of the NBN, says Harpur, are
improvements in services such as e-health and e-learning, and the
equitable delivery of services to rural and developing markets, and, he
adds, the NBN will also pave the way for smart grids, “whereby an
intelligent IP overlay is placed over the electricity grid enabling
utility companies to more effectively manage their networks. The
benefits of such grids include the ability to introduce smart meters
which allow customers to more efficiently manage their own energy use
and the potential for utility companies reduce their output of carbon
emissions.”
Frost & Sullivan says that, as the NBN will be an open network, it
will be possible to build and deliver the infrastructure as a utility,
making the services offered over the network more affordable to users.
“Its structurally separated model uses infrastructure companies to more
efficiently build the physical network, and allows telco services
companies to develop the intelligent network architecture on top of the
underlying network. New services on applications are therefore provided
to end users in the most cost-effective and efficient way,” Harpur says.
“In ten years time, we expect traditional telco services such as
broadband access to account for a very small percentage of the total
revenue generated via the NGN (next-generation network). The full
benefits will come from the services supplied via the network, and
these will continue to flow for a number of decades beyond the
completion of the project. Perhaps the best way to look at the NGN is
to consider it a stepping stone to the ultimate goal of an FttP
network.”
CONTINUED PAGE 3
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