Telstra has revealed the addition of almost one million new mobile services in the six months to December 2011, but Sensis revenues plummeted 24 percent in 12 months.
Ovum's Hodgkinson says: "While it is laudable to 'have a
go', the advantage accorded to the first mover in the e-commerce arena
is significant. The Alexa traffic ranking of ebay.com makes it the 19th
most popular website in Australia. The Australian site, ebay.com.au is
ranked consistently around 366, a long, long way ahead of Trading
Post's ranking of 10,871.
"These positions are reversed in New Zealand,
where trademe.co.nz captured first- mover slot in 1999 and ranks as the
country's fourth most trafficked website, well above even the
international eBay site ranked at 29th. The point here is that even
eBay has been unable to assault Trademe as New Zealander's preferred
online auction site.
"The big value of either eBay or Trademe as the market leader is the
depth of buyer and seller reputations - which are proprietary to the
platform and create a material loyalty benefit for frequent users."
However, Telstra has deep pockets with which to exploit the current unpopularity of eBay Australia's PayPal move.
"Telstra will need to leverage its full online marketing muscle and
invest a considerable sum in advertising to change the preferences of
Australia's buyers in sufficient numbers to achieve Trading Post's
ambitions. Either that, or eBay would need to do something to seriously
annoy its customers," says Hodgkinson.
"Our view is that first-mover advantage in these markets is pretty much
unassailable by a 'me too' product, unless the market leader alienates
its customer base by ill-judged commercialisation experiments or 'unfair' attempts at further consolidating its market power.
"This possible lucky change in the prevailing wind notwithstanding, we
see Trading Post's 'David and Goliath' tilt at eBay as very much in
danger of ending in tears."
Telstra's move into the auction space, however, while not knocking eBay
Australia off its perch, could force the dominant auction site to back
down from its PayPal stance. The Australian public is awaiting the
decision of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, which
is considering whether to let eBay Australia bypass the third line
forcing provisions of the Australian Trade Practices Act.
David Bass
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