iPhone sales shaky, 10 million by end of 2008?

Stan Beer
Friday, 25 January 2008 05:27

Business IT - Technology

The current thinking is that Apple should be able to comfortably make its 10 million by the end of 2008 target due to the release of iPhone in new markets, the release of a 3G, a new software development kit for third party developers and even a price cut. However, with just 2 million iPhones sold in the US in the first six months, it could well be a scramble to get over the line.

The fact that Apple, backed by its fierce band of loyal supporters and a publicity campaign to die for, could only get 2 million units of what analysts called a game changing product into the hands of US consumers in the first six months shows just how tough the mobile phones market is - and how different it is to the computers space.

Unlike computers, mobile phones requires partnerships with telecoms carriers, companies with totally foreign cultures to Apple and often competing interests. If AT&T, O2, Orange and T-Mobile feel they can make more money by pushing Nokia handsets rather than iPhones, then that's what their dealers will push.

There is evidence that Apple is still finding its feet in this new market space. It has already back tracked on a couple of its early resolutions for iPhone. Originally, direct downloads from iTunes were out and third party software development was only to be allowed through Safari. That's changed and there's bound to be more changes.

For a start, exclusive single-carrier arrangements will have to go sooner rather than later. Cutting a force like Vodafone out of the picture in Europe is madness. When iPhone comes to Australia, Apple is likely to go with the largest carrier Telstra, although there are rumours that Singtel Optus is also a strong contender. Whichever carrier Apple chooses, however, a lot of would be iPhone purchasers are likely to be alienated because, while many users swear by Telstra and Optus, others simply swear at them. When it comes to carriers, passions run high.

On the other hand, Apple's decision to go with single carrier relationships may be the only way it felt it could break into the market. The plan may well be to bring other carriers on later once its market is established. One thing is for sure, if Apple really wants iPhone to be more than a niche player, all the major carriers will eventually have to get a piece of the action.

As for those iPhone owners who have unlocked their phones, you've already done the right thing by Apple by buying one of their products so whatever you choose to do make sure you do the right thing by yourselves.