iPhone sales shaky, 10 million by end of 2008?

By Stan Beer
Friday, 25 January 2008 05:27

Technology

Over at CNet they're quoting analysts saying that iPhone stocks are building up and gathering dust on the shelves of retailers in the US, while European sales languish. At Zdnet, a blogger actually believes that one third of iPhones sold are unlocked and pleads for customers to "do the right thing by Apple!" Whichever way you look at it, iPhone sales are shaky.

At Macworld 2008, Steve Jobs mentioned that Apple had sold 4 million iPhones when he walked on stage. However, even Apple, adored by starry-eyed loyalists the world over, being a publicly traded company has to do a reality check and come clean when it faces analysts at an earnings conference. As does AT&T.

The truth of the matter is that Apple shipped 3.7 million iPhones by the end of 2007, yet AT&T admits that slightly less than 2 million iPhone customers had signed up by the end of the year. That leaves 1.7 million iPhones, of which Europe accounts for at the very most 400,000 by most analysts estimates. So where are the other 1.3 million iPhones?

Suggestions that 1.3 million iPhones are in the hands of errant customers that have - shock, horror - unlocked them are ludicrous. A hundred thousand or two or three unlocked iPhones might be out there maybe, but the most plausible explanation is that offered by analysts who say that most of the 1.3 million iPhones are inventory sitting unsold on retail shelves.

If that's true, then this is bad news for Apple. After an unbelievably hyped launch build up to the release of iPhone in the US on June 29 and the UK, Germany and France in November, just 2.4 million iPhones were bought by the end of December, six months after the US release. Europe's relatively poor sales can be explained by the fact that iPhone is not 3G. However, the 
sales figures for the US where 3G networks are not yet standard, are not so easy to explain away.

So will Apple reach its target of 10 million iPhones sold by the end of 2008?