Telstra a shoe-in to get the iPhone

Stan Beer
Wednesday, 05 December 2007 05:28

Business IT - Technology

It is no surprise that Apple gets on well with telecommunications carriers like AT&T, T-Mobile (Deutsche Telekom) and O2 (formerly BT  and now Telefonica S.A). All have their roots in fixed line telephony monopolies. Orange (France Telecom) may be the exception as far as friendliness goes but fiercely anti-foreign-monopoly France was always going to be the exception. So who will get the iPhone in Australia next year? No prizes for guessing.

Looking at the carriers that Apple has done business with so far: AT&T Mobility is cellular networks market leader over Verizon Wireless in the US; T-Mobile leads Vodafone in Germany; Orange leads SFR in France; and  O2 leads Vodafone in the UK. All are the market leaders in their territory. All have an EDGE network except Orange in France, where there are no EDGE networks.

Now let’s look at Australia.  There are no EDGE networks except for Telstra's and the top 4 carriers all offer 3G (both UMTS and HSDPA).  3G iPhones will almost certainly be available next year.  For Apple, the choice is clear.

Telstra Mobile is the clear market leader, well ahead of Optus Mobile (Singtel), and streets ahead of Vodafone and 3 (Hutchison Whampoa). What’s more, Telstra Mobile, like the four iPhone carriers in the US and EU, springs from the incumbent telecommunications carrier monopoly.

From both a fixed line and wireless networks point of view, Telstra has by far the widest and most complete coverage. It also has the largest cable and DSL based broadband networks and is easily the largest and most profitable telco in Australia.

From a cultural aspect, Telstra, at least superficially, is cut from the same cloth as AT&T, Deutsche Telekon, BT, Telefonica S.A and Orange. All at one time had monopolies in their market (some may argue that they still do) and all are fierce and ruthless competitors who are not afraid to leverage their market clout to squeeze out competitors. Apple obviously likes doing business with these types of companies.

One cannot imagine that Telstra would sit by and watch a competitor with lesser market share in the mobile space like Optus get the iPhone. One cannot imagine Apple not doing business with Telstra ahead of the other carriers in Australia.

Apple’s business model is also a good fit for Telstra, which has rarely sold its mobile services on price. One can imagine Telstra happily touting its exclusive iPhone deals through its retail outlets offering relatively expensive two year contracts with an upfront cost for the phone. Telstra is used to charging a premium for its services and getting away with it.

Apple’s iPhone strategy is clear – capture the world, one country at a time, by dealing exclusively with the leader in each market. Vodafone may be one of the biggest mobile carriers in the world collectively, but it wasn’t the leader in the UK and Germany.

Come 2010, when T-Mobile, AT&T and other carriers are forced to unlock iPhones for users that have finished their contracts, Apple may well be doing business with multiple carriers in each market including Australia. Until then, however, expect to see Apple and Telstra announce a deal in 2008.